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Dollar-Yen Hits a 33-Year High

April 10, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Interest rates are climbing worldwide. The US dollar is dominating the pack.

And commodities are kicking off the next leg of a bull run that began in 2019.

The primary trends that opened the decade are showing no signs of reversing. As long as they remain intact, we must lean into them.

I can’t think of a stronger trend to ride than the dollar-yen…

The USD/JPY pair is posting its highest level since June 1990:

Now that’s a big base breakout.

Fresh 33-year highs ignite the imagination. But, from a tactical perspective, I’m more concerned with the completion of a 17-month cup-and-handle.

Here’s a closer look:

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2 to 100 Club (04-10-2024)

April 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

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[Options Premium] Taking Advantage of Aggressive Apple Players

April 10, 2024

Traders have made a lot of noise about the recent correction in Apple. And yes, the selloff has been large (for Apple).

But with daily trading volumes beginning to wane, it feels to me that the run has begun to exhaust itself and bears will have one more last-ditch opportunity with earnings on the horizon.

Barring something unusual, I think there will be something to disappoint both bears and bulls alike, amounting to a whole lot of nothing. Which sets up the perfect time for a sideways bet.

 

Six Insiders Report PGY Purchases

April 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider move on today’s list comes via multiple Form 4 filings from insiders of Pagaya Technologies Ltd $PGY. 

The chief executive officer, the chief people officer, the chief technology officer, the president, and one director all bought $PGY shares, their combined purchases totaling $2,012,401.

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We're Buying the Dip in Helium

April 9, 2024

You hear that?

Chop, chop, chop...

It's the sound of traders getting chopped up. Crypto markets are consolidating. What's wrong with that?

After the moves we've seen down the cap-scale, some period of sideways price action is perfectly healthy! But while these markets digest their gains, I think it's best to leave trading to a minimum for now.

Today we'll be revisiting a number of our previous trade ideas and outlining a mean reversion setup in Helium.

Position Sizing Ideas for Naked Short Options

April 9, 2024

When putting on positions with undefined risk (naked short puts, or short strangles, for example), one question I often get asked is: “How do you determine your position size?”

This is perhaps the most important question to ask when putting on these types of trades!

I have two imprecise, imperfect ways that I decide:

Buffett, Berkshire Report $97 Million in LSXMA Buys

April 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via Form 4 filings by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett and Berkshire reported purchases in The Liberty SiriusXM Group $LSXMA for a total amount of $97 million.

Trend Following: Energy Edition

April 9, 2024

Earlier today we discussed the NYSE Oil Index breaking out to new all-time highs.

I really like this Index because, since it's NYSE-based, it includes energy stocks from all over the world.

As long as it trades on the NYSE, who cares if it's TOTAL in France, or Petrabras in Brazil?

These are the most important Oil stocks in the world and the index is hitting new all-time highs.

Here are all the stocks in the index relative to a variety of moving averages (getting longer-term moving from left to right on this chart below):

Fake Internet Money & Real Money

April 9, 2024

Think of Gold as the stable asset. And then stocks and other forex markets are just trading up and down relative to the price of Gold.

This week we discussed the fact that currencies all over the world have been losing their value, particularly relative to the price of Gold.

But this month now even the US Dollar has broken down relative to Gold.

You can get all those details here.

So if we're going to take the value of stocks and other fiat, and price it in Gold, then we should treat Crypto the same way.

Here are Bitcoin and Ethereum priced in "Real Money":

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The Minor Leaguers (04-08-2024)

April 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.