Before we get in to stocks and charts, I just want to thank you for your support all these years. It really means a lot to me. Today I noticed I had 61.8K followers on Twitter! How about that? Leonardo Fibonacci would be proud!
This was my first week back living on the east coast. My 2-year plan to be in California turned into 4.5 beautiful years in Sonoma Valley. This was after spending 15 years total in the northeast between college in Fairfield, CT and over a decade in New York City.
I keep getting asked, "But JC why would you ever go back???" (this is happening at least several times each day).
As we head into year end there's a lot going on in markets, particularly on the macro and intermarket front.
With that being said, I gotta give the people what they want so today's Chart of The Week is going to focus on a trade setting up in one of 2019's most controversial stocks...Beyond Meat.
There's been lots of frustrating talk about companies with high share prices not splitting their stock. I tend to agree. While technically splitting shares of a stock doesn't do anything to enhance the value of your investment, it does help to provide greater liquidity for one to get into or out of a position quickly and at a fairer price.
But this is an argument for academics. We're just here to make money.
Perhaps you've seen JCs recently bullish post on Amazon $AMZN and you agree that you'd like to take a long position, but the high share price scares you?
When we talk about Equities, we need to think about them holistically as an asset class as opposed to simply focusing on the individual stock or sector or index we're looking at.
How quickly people forget what a beast Amazon has been for years. All it took was an 18-month consolidation for investors to fall out of love with one of the greatest stocks in American history.
The bet the bears are making is that Amazon has been lagging and dragging down the Consumer Discretionary sector, considering it's 22% weighting in the index $XLY. So if you believe this is a big market top, I understand why you would think Discretionaries are setting up for a big fall. I totally get that.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
People don't like it when I tell them we're near the beginning of a new bull market in stocks. For some reason, they prefer that cozy feeling of going to bed thinking stocks are near an important high, and they've somehow outsmarted the system by selling stocks in uptrends instead of buying them.
I'm convinced some of these people must be looking at their charts upside down.
Anyway, let's take a look at the markets so I can show you why I think we're closer to the beginning of a new bull market and not near the end of an old one:
