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How We Know We're In a Risk-On Environment

January 22, 2021

The market has been gaining from strength to strength and if anything, we see greater participation across the globe as this rally matures into what looks like a long-term bull market.

One phrase we hear pretty often during such bull markets is the "Risk-on environment". So what is a Risk-on environment and what are the indicators that allude to such a set-up?

Let's take a look at some charts!

The New Commodities Supercycle

January 21, 2021

What would it take to finally end the long-term bear market in commodities?

How about Crude Oil Futures trading below zero?

Yes, remember when Oil traded in the negatives last year?

This is something most of us never thought was possible. If you had this on your list of possibilities, kudos to you I guess.

I didn't.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: C.R.E.A.M.?

January 21, 2021

It's not a new chart - in fact it makes the rounds on a fairly regular basis.

The iteration I saw this week showed the relationship between global money supply, stocks and high yield bonds over the past five years. The trend for all three was the same - up and to the right, with early 2021 bring a fresh round of new highs.

For whatever reason, my first thought on seeing this version was that Wu-Tang Clan had it right all along.

[Options] Are the Megacaps Back?

January 20, 2021

Chatting with the team this morning, something that stuck out and we all agreed on is that the Megacaps are starting to show signs of re-asserting their dominance. And that it won't be a one-day event. Just look at NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, and the like and you'll likely see what we're seeing.

And the stock that stands out the most to us right now is Google $GOOG.

Check out this chart:

Louis' Look: Evaluate Each Chart On Its Own Merit

January 19, 2021

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

This is an issue that pretty much everyone encounters at some time or another...

Overcomplicating correlations.

I'm going to share a few recent examples, and then discuss how overthinking these relationships could potentially end in a world of hurt.

Mystery Chart (01-19-2021)

January 19, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to this exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Focusing On Prices, Not The News. My Conversation w/ Aaron Task

January 19, 2021

Last Friday I sat down with Aaron Task of Seeking Alpha for a fun chat about today's market environment. Aaron and I have known each other for years from his days as the Digital Editor of Fortune as well as Editor-in-Chief of Yahoo! Finance. We also have a lot of friends in common.

It's always interesting talking to someone from the media about how little media I consume. In addition to the benefits of following price, and ignoring the "news", we discuss the current sector and market cap rotation we're seeing, the next direction for Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies, as well some other important tools and strategies that we're incorporating right now.

It's always fun to catch up with Aaron. He just serves me alley-oops.

Enjoy!