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Silver & Gold, Should We Hold?

March 11, 2021

Bond Yields and US Dollar have been in the spotlight over the last few days. But in the meantime, let's not forget to check on our shiny friends, that are not in their most shiny phases.

What are the levels to watch out for on Silver and Gold? Let's have a look.

Silver has been the stronger one out of the two names and we've seen more resilience from Silver over the past few months. While both the metals haven't been at their shiny best off late, an outperformance in Silver bodes well for precious metals in the weeks and months ahead. It is this outperformance that prevents us from shorting Gold and being selective about the levels we observe.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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2 to 100 Club (03-10-2021)

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice we...

[PLUS] Weekly Macro Perspectives - Are you Ready for the Boom?

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

  • Coming out of recession, economy typically roars beyond expectations
  • Economic confidence is heating up but needs to expand
  • Rise in yields & inflation reflect economic strength and are opportunities for investors

It’s been over two decades, but policy makers may finally be getting it right. This is not a blanket endorsement of the stimulus bill that is inching its way through Congress and toward the President’s desk. But it is a recognition that after bearing the cost of stimulus, the economy may be poised to reap the benefits of it as well. Wall Street has certainly celebrated excessive liquidity from the Fed. Fiscal stimulus at this juncture may help the Main Street recovery gain momentum and actually exceed expectations. That used to be the norm, though in recent decades recoveries have stalled out before gaining much traction. This has produced a bifurcated economy where those with Wall Street exposure have...

Mystery Chart (03-10-2021)

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that's captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it's an absolute price chart, other times it's on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren't able to recognize what's in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision...

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

[Options] Feed the Ducks in Biotech

March 10, 2021

The Biotech space has seen a lot of price action in both directions over the past several months. As such, there is no surprise that options premiums in that corner of the market have become a bit elevated.

There's a setup I've spotted that offers us a good opportunity to fade these premiums as the sector pauses to digest recent activity.

The Deal With Debt Markets

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week's mystery chart was a popular one, so we inverted it to make things a bit more challenging. Someone still guessed it... Nice work.

It was the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. The issue with inverting Bond charts is that when you do they look identical to yields. In the case of IEF, we're basically dealing with the US 10-Year Yield $TNX.

Rising rates has been one of the main themes early this year as developed market yields have accelerated higher and hit the pockets of bond investors all over the world.

In this post, we'll check in on some of the most important and most telling credit instruments on both absolute and relative terms in order to piece together the message the bond market is sending investors.

Read our post from last month for our take on what cross-asset ratios outside of the Bond Market are indicating. Many of these trends have confirmed their reversals and accelerated to the upside over the...

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

March 9, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Sentiment shifts last week seemed more reflective of weakness in the headliners than the new weekly closing highs in the equal-weight S&P 500. This is a healthy development, especially for active investors who are seeing the market coalesce around a new leadership group while optimism comes off a boil. For passive investors, the pain of loss is more acute. This risk for the market overall is that diminished optimism morphs into more meaningful pessimism and breadth digestion turns to sustained deterioration. We have not seen that. Even as options data shows more concern and weekly sentiment surveys turn more neutral, fund flows continue to display optimism. When this reverses, risks are likely to rise. From a strategic positioning perspective, risks are elevated and passive investors may just be starting to feel uncomfortable.

Sentiment Chart of the Week: XLE/XLK Ratio

Rotation out of the...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-09-2021)

March 9, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Rotation into value is dominating the narrative right now as money continues to pour out of the former leaders and into long-term secular laggards like Financials and Energy.

In line with this trend, we continue to focus less on US Large-Caps and Growth, and instead look for opportunities in SMIDs, Cyclicals, and International stocks.

Overall, the global equity market remains healthy, supported by strong breadth and rotation. Meanwhile, defensive assets like Gold and Bonds continue to underperform.

We've really been hitting on these themes a lot recently. Here's a quick recap of what we're seeing out there:

  • ...

Add To Growth? Or Dump It?

March 9, 2021

So here's the question, with the inevitable mean reversion for growth and tech, will you take that opportunity to lighten up on any growth & tech you have left to buy more value?

Or will you double down on the growth and ignore value stocks?

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Crowded trades have come back to earth, but average stock and cyclical industry groups are making new highs. Economic momentum is building as recovery accelerates. Bond yields are still rising and long-awaited leadership rotation remains underway.

The leadership rotation continues in earnest. From a sector perspective, Technology dropped four spots last week and is on the cusp of falling out of the leadership group for the first time since 2019. Consumer Discretionary dropped another two spots and except for Utilities, would be in the last place in the rankings. Gaining strength this week are Communication Services and Materials. Beyond all the improving and deteriorating conditions seen at the industry group level across market cap levels, our rankings show a consistent theme: 8 of the top 10 groups (and none of the bottom 10) are small-caps and 8 of the bottom 10 groups (and none of the top 10) are large-caps.

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Young Aristocrats (March 2021)

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.

Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix...