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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: Understanding True Diversification with Chris Cain

September 27, 2024

Below is the first ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

If you watched the first Mastermind class on Defining Personal Objectives, you heard me talk about diversification. Well, meet Chris Cain. Chris is the U.S. Quantitative Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a division of Bloomberg LP, and he literally studies diversification. 

Chris and I discussed mathematics behind diversification, and how diversification can impact your long-term returns more than you even know. 

Enjoy this conversation. 

 

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

China Ripping? Buy Copper

September 27, 2024

Have you heard about China?

Chinese stocks just had their best week in history, following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) announcement of rate cuts, among other stimulative actions.

In July, we talked about Copper and its base and industrial metal peers showing broad weakness. But that seems to be changing...

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper, so base and industrial metals have benefited from the recent pivot from the PBOC.

Chinese stocks and copper futures have been positively correlated for years:

 

The 200-day rolling correlation flipped negative earlier this year but is positive again and has recently been screaming higher toward its highest positive correlation in history.

This week, the China Large-Cap ETF $FXI decisively broke a multi-year downtrend line and entered a new primary uptrend.

If the path of least resistance is higher for Chinese stocks, the 29th element should also catch a bid.

Earlier this year, Gold broke out to new all-time highs, but Copper...

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Risk vs. Reward for the Bond Trade

September 27, 2024

Despite the gloomy headlines the market received this summer, major stock market sectors are showing resilience across the board, with new signs of life emerging. 

A shift seems to be on the horizon.

At the moment, we are long bonds. We like bonds, and the charts tell us we are right to like bonds here, but what does the future hold?

If inflation starts ticking up again, the market usually pivots toward the reflation trade—favoring sectors like energy, small caps, and financials as rates rise. (I am not saying that this is happening. I am saying that we need to keep an eye on this.) 

Energy has not participated in the bull run this year. When we compare XLE to some of the best stocks this cycle, like XLK, the performance gap is wild.

The chart below shows XLK up roughly 40% over the trailing 12 months while XLE is negative.

Meanwhile, the rally in bonds appears to be slowing down. 

 

Bonds have a traditionally inverse relationship with energy stocks, so we think this further sets the stage for a catch-up trade from oil and gas.

Oil...

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International Hall of Famers (09-27-2024)

September 27, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/27/24

September 27, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XLC position to November options.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/26/24

September 26, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XME position.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Junior International Hall of Famers (09-26-2024)

September 25, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing month.

Then we sorted...

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[Options] Seeking Risk

September 25, 2024

During today's internal Analyst meeting, JC said: "We should be doing more in China."

It's not something I often agree with. But today I do.

In fact, I've already got a couple positions on in stocks with China exposure, and I'm adding some more today.

And look at this performance of the China Large Cap ETF $FXI:

 

 There's nothing quite like a huge gap up to change investors' perceptions and sentiment. I think right now, investors are warming up to the idea that the train may have already left the station to get positioned for a China bull market.

And the catch-up trade may be massive.

In today's Options Jam Session, I discuss this, as well as my thoughts on what's in store for the stock market in the coming 2-4 months.

 

 

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts