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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/6/24

September 5, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XME.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. NEW: Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Investors Are Rotating Into Safe Haven Assets

September 5, 2024

The stage is set for a strategic shift.

Since this summer, safe haven assets have been catching a bid and outperforming across the board.

Investors are paying attention to growth indicators like ISM and PMI data. Other investors are looking at CPI and paying extra-close attention to the Fed… 

Here's the US Core Inflation Rate along with the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. Since inflation peaked and rolled over in 2022, bonds have been building a massive base:

 

However, similar to economic growth data, inflation is a lagging indicator.

The same is true for employment.

Here's the unemployment rate along with the 2s/10s spread.

We are starting to see some pressure in the labor market, which goes hand-in-hand with rising treasury spreads.

 

July job openings dropped to 7.67 million, the lowest since January 2021. This marks a significant decline from the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million. 

There were only 1.1 jobs for every unemployed person, down from 2.0 last year. Major declines were seen in healthcare, government, and transportation. Voluntary quits decreased to 3.3 million...

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Junior Hall of Famers (09-05-2024)

September 5, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We want as many vehicles and...

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Both Winners and Losers

September 5, 2024

We're now over 2 years into a bull market, so you know what that means?

It means correlations have come off a lot.

Keep in mind that when volatility spikes, correlations among S&P500 components shoot up to one. 

It seems like they all move together, either up or down, depending on how the day goes.

We saw that in 2022 and we most certainly saw that during Covid.

But now that we're 2 years into this bull market, correlations have come off so much that it is easier than ever to find BOTH winners and losers out there.

This is NOT an "everything moves together" market. It's actually the furthest thing from it.

Take a look at SharkNinja, for example, making new all-time highs again this month.

 

Earlier this week I was just trying to do some harmless research on SharkNinja $SN and now I got my wife asking me why I'm looking at women's vibrators on amazon...

"It's just part of the job babe. Just part of the job..."

Apparently SharkNinja's product line extends beyond vacuum cleaners and blenders.

I had to learn that one the hard way...

Meanwhile, a big question I find myself asking here is...

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (09-05-2024)

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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The Short Report (09-04-2024)

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot...

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A Short Squeeze You Can't Phathom

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The biotech market has a great divide between the haves and have-nots. Some stocks have experienced tremendous markup phases, while others can't seem to get out of the doghouse.

Today, we're covering a biotech stock that has rallied nearly 200% this year. 

Despite this rally, the short sellers have continued to add to their positions and are close to carrying their largest short position ever.

With the stock coiling at a shelf of former highs from last summer, we're betting the short sellers are on the verge of unwinding their positions and sparking a short squeeze.

 

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[Options Premium] Bonds Offering a Opportunity

September 4, 2024

With yesterday's market action firing, potentially, another warning shot that Q4 trading will be challenging, I'm on the hunt for opportunities that may be a bit more uncorrelated to the risk I currently have on the books.

One such opportunity is presenting itself in the bond market and we're going to position ourselves to win both in the short-term or the longer-term.

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Technology in Purgatory

September 4, 2024

The September Monthly Candlesticks Strategy Session for ASC Premium Members is happening tonight at 6 p.m. ET.

Click here to register.

As we head into September, we want to keep in mind that this is historically one of the most difficult months of the year for stock market investors.

But what could cause markets to struggle for a while, after such an impressive year for returns?

This is the chart that stands out the most to me. We're looking at Technology relative to the S...