Commodities have been a part of the discussion for quite some time. As base metals and precious metals alternate between their outperformance, another commodity is now taking center stage.
Cotton has been on our radar for quite some time, but we've been waiting for a resumption in trend. Much like the equity market, cotton too was stuck in a sideways mess.
This week we're looking at one long setup in Cement. Commodities and Infrastructure are bouncing from crucial levels. We'd like to look at a name from this segment.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
As Technical Analysts, our primary goal is to identify the trend. If it's headed higher, it's positive. If it's headed lower, it's negative, and if it's stuck in between, it's sideways.
Sounds simple? Well, sort of.
As traders, your primary goal is to make money. Yes, we're all here to learn, but isn't the goal also making money?
Follow the trend, trade/invest accordingly, and book profits.
Sounds simple? Well, not so much.
Risk Management is probably the most important and the most undermined concept in the market. A great plan can turn into a disaster with bad execution. An average plan can turn into a success with good execution. It's the execution of the plan. That's where the magic happens.
And then of course there's Dr. Copper which appears to have successfully defended former resistance turned support at its all-time highs from 2011. It's impossible to overstate the importance of how this massive base in Copper resolves.
Bulls definitely don't want this move to evolve into a failed breakout... The 4.50-4.60 zone is the line in the sand.
As for Energy Markets... Crude Oil making its highest daily close since October 2018 might be the biggest development of all.
We had fun with this one all week. We can frame it in the context of Ford’s aggressive foray into the EV market or more narrowly as an expression of suburbanite luxury truck preferences. It fits well within the growth to value conversation as well as “old is new and new is old” themes. Even if it’s not seen strictly as a pair trade, it reflects a shift in investor interest and preference. After establishing a big base versus Tesla (one which looks an awful lot like an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern), Ford is poised to break out and move into empty space.
We're continuing to see strength and leadership in the semiconductor space. And a name the All Star Charts teams has been high on for some time has recently begun to break out from a new consolidation. Being that the stock is also making all-time highs -- you know situations like this get me excited.
So heading into a long Memorial Day Weekend, we're putting one more position on the books to round out our month.
Earlier in the week, we held our May Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting 5 of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
On the this episode of Bearish or Bullish we talk about the Crypto Crash and how when Futures opened up on Sunday, they didn't care. Stocks were actually up a little. That's the market signaling to us that there is no systemic risk right now in Crypto. And we're not even close.
That's probably a good thing, and more bullish for the Crypto space considering how much larger it would need to get to really become intertwined with Stocks and Bonds, which combined are over $150T in market cap. Crypto is only 1.6T, just to put things in perspective.
We also discuss the latest Minor Leaguers Report which scouts the farm system for Small-cap stocks between $1-2B in market cap before they get called up to the Mid-caps ($2B+)
Relative strength in Bonds and European Banks. But is that sustainable? What should we expect?
All this and why Chardonnay is the world's most versatile grape on the latest Episode of Bearish Or Bullish.
