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The Bears Are Hibernating

July 15, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Several weeks back, we discussed the fact that new lows were non-existent across just about all of the major averages in the US.

It’s pretty hard for a market of stocks to decline in any meaningful way without an expansion in downside participation. And we just aren't seeing any signs of this when looking through our breadth chartbooks and new low indicators - not even on shorter timeframes. This remains the case today.

We've been pounding the table on our view that this is nothing but a messy market, as well as the fact that many significant risk assets are chopping around key resistance levels.

So you would think this would be an excellent opportunity for the bears to take control… But, they just can't seem to get it done! Let's dive into some of our breadth and sentiment indicators and see what they're currently saying about this.

All Star Charts Crypto

Shakeout City

July 15, 2021

We've made our thoughts pretty clear these last few weeks: The bias is higher for Bitcoin if it's above 30,000.

But while we're waiting for bulls to reassert control, it's been messy and choppy out there.

Many of the names we've been taking shots on the long side have fallen back below their risk level, to then aimlessly meander. Neither breakouts nor breakdowns are following through. It's ultimate indecision at play...

This is such a prevailing theme right now in the near term that even though we've been hitting on it a lot recently, we want to be downright obnoxious about it.

Until Bitcoin can pick a direction, buying any Altcoins on the long or short side becomes infinitely more complex.

Just take a look at how few outliers there have been from this mess recently. More or less every coin (above $1B in market-cap), is being heavily anchored down by this messy action in the major coins:

[Premium] Q2 Playbook

July 15, 2021

As we progress into Q2 of Fiscal Year 2021-2022, this playbook outlines our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit.

This playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates, as well as outline our views on the major nifty indices and the sector/thematic indices.

We also cover individual stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of the themes discussed in the playbook.

[Options] A Play in the Worlds Most Precious Resource

July 14, 2021

It isn't often that we put on trades where we are explicitly swinging for the fences. But an opportunity has presented itself in the lastest Young Aristocrats report that is offering up an all-or-nothing reward to risk scenario. If we're wrong, we'll likely lose 100% of our capital. But if we're right? We could potentially make 6-10x our investment. I'd like to think the All Star Chart team's conviction on this trade tilts the odds in our favor a little bit.

What's interesting (at least to me), is that the play is in a name with exposure to water. Yes, water. The earth's most abundant, yet precious resource. I've always daydreamed of someday making a killing with long-term investments in water rights and so forth. I'm not there yet, but maybe this play will jump-start my exploration.

You Can't Have A Party Without The Chips!

July 14, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Thanks to everyone who participated in last week’s mystery chart.

We asked whether the chart could make a decisive upside resolution out of its consolidation pattern, or if this level will continue to act as resistance and keep a cap on prices.

The responses were mixed, with many wanting to wait for more information. In many cases, people were looking for confirmation of a breakout.

The chart was a daily candlestick view of the iShares Semiconductor Index ETF $SOXX.

Not much has changed since we first posted the chart. In fact, price has yet to make a decisive move from this key level. Let's dive in and see what's happening and where it's likely headed.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

July 14, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: It’s bears on strike and bulls on parade. While it persists, it can fuel a rally. Whether it can persist is another question. We have already seen (particularly in less robust trading activity and a downward trend in the NAAIM exposure index) evidence of waning risk appetites. Earnings season may test investor resolve. Expectations are in the sky in terms of both results for the past year and estimates for the year ahead. If the earnings rebound is seen as slowing, investors may struggle to maintain an optimistic outlook for stocks, especially with valuations suggesting that they are priced for perfection at current levels.

 

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Earnings are expected to soar

All Star Charts Crypto

Stay Objective

July 14, 2021

We like to play devil's advocate by constantly questioning our underlying macro thesis.

One of the many ways we do this is by posing an alternative scenario from which we think is the higher likelihood outcome.

So let's run through this brief exercise...

Which will it be for Bitcoin?

Is this is an epic head & shoulders topping pattern or an accumulation period for the next leg higher?

The All Star Momentum Scan

July 14, 2021

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to generate great returns.

While we go through our lists of sectors and stocks on a weekly basis, we thought of launching a product that would highlight the names that are the strongest performers in our universe and those that are primed for an explosive move.

Just like The Outperformers scan, this is a list of stocks belonging to the sectors that display relative strength in the market at any given point in time. Since sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market, we will be ahead of the curve before the gears keep shifting.