This is the video recording of our September 24, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The ASC team did their monthly conference call this week, where they rip though a million charts and highlight the things we need to pay attention to -- the trends, the divergences, and particular setups in stocks that we like.

The blizzard of information they throw at us can be overwhelming at times. This is why you come to me to cull through it all and find my favorite setups that can be played with options.

Today's pick comes out of that call and its focused on the small business side of things.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The story this week was bond yields and the mounting evidence that they are ready to move higher. 10-year yields in the US and Germany have climbed to their highest levels since July. The US 10-year T-Note yield has broken above 1.40% and could soon have 1.75% again in its sights. A 2-handle by the end of the year would not be surprising. Except for the May/June time period, German yields are the least negative they have been since crossing the zero threshold in mid-2019. These moves may reflect inflation expectations, but with the rise in the 2-year T-Note yield this week (highest level since March 2020) it is also the bond market taking seriously the possibility that the Fed will soon be joining the 30% of global central banks that have already begun to raise interest rates. For investors, this could be an opportunity to rotate back into cyclical sectors that do well in rising rate environments.

High-beta stocks are hitting new multi-month highs relative to low volatility.

This is the opposite of what would be happening if the world was about to come to an end.

The ratio between High Beta stocks and Low Volatility stock basically stopped going up last February.

Congratulations to those holding positions in Zee Entertainment, for you, have been rewarded! Well, at least for now.

Zee has been notoriously stubborn for remaining sideways for all of seventeen months now. That's a long time, considering several stocks have grown two-fold, three-fold at the least.

But Zee has also been a part of a sector that has consistently underperformed the market.

But have things changed with the move we saw in Zee over the past two weeks?

Maybe...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Considering the selling pressure in recent weeks, we were very excited to take a look at our breadth indicators today to see if we finally saw some downside expansion worth pointing out. Spoiler alert: There was nothing there.

Being as we're in a sideways market, we're always on the lookout for a change in character in internals that might suggest some resolutions are finally on the horizon. And since bears have been driving stocks lower since early this month, our focus is on new short-term lows. 

With the S&P experiencing some volatility and revisiting its 50-day moving average this week, did we finally get that "fall day?"

Two things we've been hitting on ad nauseam for over a quarter now are the consistent lack of new lows and the fact that most stocks have already corrected beneath the surface.

Today, we're going to revisit both of these key themes and see where we currently stand.

Let’s...

This is the video recording of the September 23rd Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/23/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I'll admit it. I'm a Fed-watcher from way back. I enjoy it as much as anyone, and probably more than most (especially those within the All Star Charts community). 

While I never had to analyze the weekly money supply numbers to figure out what the Fed was doing, I've remained attentive as the Fed has revamped its mode of communication with the market time and again.

The latest iteration -- a written statement and press conference after every FOMC meeting coupled with summary economic projections released four times a year -- reflects the Fed's desire for transparency. It also supports the belief that forward guidance is a powerful tool at a time when interest rates are stuck near zero.

Market participants listen, absorb the message and the forecasts, and react. We did this dance again this week.

Here’s the latest batch of forecasts from the Fed:

Is this it?

Are the bears trapped, and now we rally on higher?

As we've said for those with shorter-term time horizons, there's nothing wrong with taking a swing if Bitcoin's above these lows.

The bears in the derivs are growing too, with funding rates across all exchanges falling back into the negative territory despite Bitcoin's recovery into the day.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Optimism has begun to cool as sentiment relieves the excesses of early summer. Yet, we are a far cry from a complete unwind that cyclical damage suggests is necessary. As investors become more risk-averse, we are looking for evidence that pessimism has become widespread and excessive (more II bears than bulls, NAAIM Exposure Index reading below 30, ETF outflows close to or below zero on a 4-week basis, and a daily close in the VIX greater than 30). Though there is certainly an increased level of caution and concern among market participants, we haven’t seen a degree of fear or pessimism in any of our indicators that point to the warranted rebalance. For now, risks remain elevated as sentiment swings toward pessimism.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Risk Appetite In Retreat

My son is playing soccer right now, and one of the things I hear over and over from the coach...

On September 22nd, Sean and Strazza hopped on a Twitter Live Stream to discuss a recent trade idea for All Star Charts Options Members.

Here's the play:

"I like an $IWM November 200/205/235/240 Iron Condor for an approximately $1.80 credit. This means I’ll be short the 205 puts and 235 calls, while protected by the 200 puts and the 240 calls. This is a defined risk trade where the most I can lose is the maximum possible value of the spread (distance between short and long strikes — $5.00) minus the credit we receive at initiation ($1.80) which equals $3.20."

To learn more about the trade and the thinking behind it, click below to watch a replay of the Live Stream.

Have you ever held a beach ball underwater and pressed down?

You can feel the pressure on your arms - the beachball is trying everything to float back up.

So what happens when you let go? It jumps into the air!

Once that pressure holding it down eases, it has nowhere to go but up.

The market is the exact same.

When everything's selling indiscriminately, we want to look for the sectors, stocks, or in this case, cryptocurrencies that are bucking the trend and pushing up against your arms.

So what's going to happen when that selling, that force holding the beach ball gives up?

It's gonna shoot higher!

That stock or cryptocurrency closing the day higher in the face of broad distribution is likely to be the next leader when that force holding everything down subsides.

We saw this take place with Solana in August, and we know how that turned out...

Now that the market finds itself beaten and bruised over the last few weeks, we need to ask the same question - where's the relative strength?