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Good Buy or Goodbye?

November 7, 2021

The weekend is a great time to take a step back and think about things.

Thinking is underrated.

I'm also bullish on breathing.

If I could buy a leveraged ETF on breathing I would.

Writing helps me do both of these things.

So today I'm just going to point out a few things that are on my mind, and maybe they'll help you understand how I approach the world.

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The Hall of Famers (11-05-2021)

November 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s take a look at some of them now.

Here’s this week’s list:

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • Filter out any stocks that are below their May 10th high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S&...
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When to Feed the Ducks

November 5, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The best opportunities are the ones with the most clearly defined risk characteristics and most favorable risk/rewards.  

This summer, Minneapolis Spring Wheat was offering us a trade set-up with both these qualities. Price had just resolved higher from a near decade-long base and was trading at its highest level in 8 years. We were buying the breakout.

Fast forward to today and our initial profit target has been met and we’re locking in gains.

In today’s post, we’ll take a step back, review our trade, pinpoint current levels of interest, and discuss how we’re managing the position moving forward.

First, let’s look at the weekly chart of Minneapolis Wheat futures:

Back in July, we were buying the breakout above a...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

November 5, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We’ve been on the lookout for evidence of breadth improvement and the new high lists this week have given us plenty of it. The 63-day (3-month) new high lists for small-caps and mid-caps have heated up after being dormant for most of the summer and that is starting to stretch into new highs on a 126-day (6-month) and 252-day (1-year) basis as well. On the NASDAQ we have now seen the most 52-week highs since March. I’ll let pundits talk about the impact that a drop in bond yields might be having on this and just note that new highs expanding is one of the most bullish things we can see from the stock market. When they stop expanding and start to contract is when we start to see trouble.

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Looking For Commodity Exposure?

November 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The outperformance from commodities this year has been hard to ignore.

Over the trailing 52 weeks, the CRB index is up over 56% and our equal-weight commodity index is up over 37%. The entire space has been participating -- energy, base metals, grains, and softs. 

And even though precious metals have been trending lower since last summer, we can’t forget that gold kicked off the commodities rally by hitting new all-time highs last year.

If we’re only looking at stocks and bonds we’re cutting ourselves off from what is currently the top-performing asset class. It doesn’t matter whether we trade the markets on a more tactical timeframe or if we have a long-term investing approach. There is alpha in commodities right now and we want to have exposure. 

But how do we take advantage of this space if we don’t have the ability to buy December futures contracts of Crude Oil or the March ‘22 futures contracts of Corn?

That's where our commodity ETF/ETN list comes into play...

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[Options Premium] Cycling Down in Stereo?

November 5, 2021

I'm already groaning at the Dad Pun I'm trying to pull off here with this post's title.

The team put out a new The Short Report highlighting stocks that are ripe for getting short. Yes, we might be in a bull market, but its a "market of stocks" and if you look hard enough, you can always find stocks going in either direction, regardless of the macro market environment.

And the idea from the report that stands out best to me is now the victim of my bad pun.

 

 

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Breakouts and Breadth Expansion

November 4, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Last week, we pointed out some mixed signals in our breadth indicators

Despite the new highs from almost all the large-cap major averages, we had yet to see new highs in their corresponding advance-decline lines.

We also hadn’t experienced the kind of expansion in participation that we’d expect to accompany the indexes to new price highs.

Our new high indicators were still muted, even on shorter timeframes.

But that was last week. This week, mid-caps and small-caps have joined their large-cap peers at new record highs after making decisive upside resolutions from their year-to-date ranges.

And guess what? We’re finally getting that breadth confirmation we were missing.

Let’s talk about it.

First, here’s a quick update on the advance-decline lines that we covered in last week's column:

...

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The Short Report (11-04-2021)

November 4, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions... but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. But we don’t highlight lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Until now… ...