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Saturday Morning Chartoons: About That Rotation...

February 19, 2022

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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Hogs Follow the Herd

February 18, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Gold is the hot topic this week, now that it’s finally showing signs of life.

It’s impossible to deny gold’s near-term strength. But we think the setup probably needs more time to develop and work through all the overhead supply from the past few years.

Long story short, gold is still pretty messy if it's below the 2011 highs.

If and when the shiny metal makes a decisive resolution, there should be plenty of time to join in and ride the trend higher.

As for other areas within commodities, we continue to see a growing list of contracts reclaim key levels and print fresh highs.

Procyclical commodities like crude oil and gasoline might come to mind since they’re constantly in the news cycle.

But other areas, such as grains and even livestock, are also breaking to new multi-year highs.

Today, we’re going to highlight an agricultural commodity that often gets overlooked.    

Let’s talk about hogs!

...

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International Hall of Famers (02-18-2022)

February 18, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

February 18, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There are plenty of ways in which we make our lives more complicated. There’s an endless list of things we could look at that would obscure our perspective. If I’ve learned anything in nearly a quarter century in this business, it’s that simple trumps complicated and clarity beats obscurity. That’s what makes this week’s one for the weekend so lovely. The 48 markets that make up the ACWI can be summed up in seven charts: 3 regional composites and 4 individual countries. A single slide provides a great starting point for identifying new opportunities and increasing risks on a global scale. The message now is straightforward. The UK and Canada have broken out on a relative basis and EM looks like it wants to. The US has pulled back to an important juncture and the rest of the world remains messy. (Shout out to Grant for putting this global dashboard together.)

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[Options Premium] Taking What the Market Gives

February 18, 2022

If you've been following our narrative this week, you know we've been preaching patience as the stock market is most decidedly in the "chop zone" right now. Me and JC did a live twitter stream on Wednesday afternoon discussing the situation and how we don't feel compelled to force any new trades.

That is still the situation. But one name that I've been watching for a delta-neutral credit spread has moved in the last two days in a way that gives me a little more confidence that now may be a good time to get involved.

Gold Hits New All-time High (Priced in Yen)

February 18, 2022

What do we know for sure about new all-time highs?

We know they aren't characteristics of downtrends.

New highs are something we regularly see in uptrends.

And wouldn't you know it, Gold Futures just made new all-time highs, priced in Japanese Yen.

"But I live in America, JC. Why should I care about gold in yen terms?"

Because Gold acts much more like a currency than a commodity. Haven't you noticed how practically every commodity on earth has skyrocketed the past 18 months, except Gold?

Besides, the new all-time highs in Gold priced in Yen also came along with new 52-week highs in Gold priced in both Euro and Australian Dollar.

The All Star Momentum Scan

February 18, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

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Mixed Evidence for Risk Appetite

February 18, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

There’s been very little happening on our risk checklist, as evidence for risk appetite remains split between bulls and bears. 

The last time we discussed it was in our Q1 Playbook. While the list hasn’t picked a decisive direction yet, the fact that it's such a mixed bag is information in and of itself.

It's been an excellent roadmap for us in recent months, because just like the market -- our risk checklist has also been a mess. 

Let's take a look at where we stand and discuss some of the more recent developments.

Here it is, with a current reading of 44%:

This tells us that the majority of checklist items are actually below our risk levels and in risk-off territory. However, when we consider the selling pressure thus far in 2022, the list has held up quite well. 

Here's a time series of the percentage of assets in bullish territory charted beneath the S&P...

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Don't Ignore Stress

February 17, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Not all stressors are debilitating.

In some cases, stress can push us to perform at our highest level. But, of course, there are instances when opposing forces become overwhelming, making it near impossible to reach our goals.

We’ve all been there.

And the markets are no different.

While we keep tabs on our heart rate or blood pressure to gauge our stress levels, we focus on credit spreads to measure stress in the market.

Given that rates continue to rise worldwide, it’s an appropriate time to evaluate these spreads and the potential obstacles that may lay ahead for risk assets.

We recently broke down credit spreads in anticipation of them widening and outlined some charts that are driving this trend.

Read our January 27 post for more information about the ins and outs of credit spreads and how we analyze them.

Since these spreads provide valuable information on the health of the overall market, we’re going to check back in and discuss another chart that is...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: A Big Test For Passive Investors

February 17, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I’m reading the book “Trillions” by Robin Wigglesworth right now. It’s about the rise of passive index investing – or, according to its sub-title, “How a band of Wall Street renegades invented the index fund and changed finance forever.” 

It’s been an enjoyable read so far. I’m about halfway through the book and am excited to see how it finishes. 

While Wigglesworth’s book has been written and published, the story of passive investing overall remains unfinished. If it is like other investing fads that have come and gone, some of the most exciting times (for better or worse) may lie ahead. History is littered with investment approaches that move from novelty to seemingly foolproof only to end in heartbreak and tears for those left holding the bag.