From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway:  It takes bulls to have a bull market. Seeing cyclical sentiment moving from pessimism to neutral in recent weeks has been fuel for the rally off of the June lows. From both a fund flow and survey perspective, investors have been increasing participation since mid-year. But with a robust appetite for Risk On assets still not apparent, the biggest risk from a sentiment perspective is that macro headaches fuel an uptick in pessimism that overwhelms the positive thrust developments of the past few weeks. That could lead to a more complete unwind from a strategic positioning perspective. For now, optimism is on the rise but far from excessive, and that tends to be a sweet spot for stocks.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Households Hold On To Stocks

From a short-term and intermediate-term perspective, volatility in the first half of 2022 fueled fear and pessimism that moved toward historical extremes. From a longer-term perspective, the unwind in optimism...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

That's right, we're in the 'hood. Robinhood stock $HOOD, that is.

Steve Strazza has been pounding the table about this name for so long that JC and I finally relented and agreed that it's starting to become that "put up or shut up" time.

With the stock swimming just below $10 per share, JC said: "Let's just leverage into this thing! If it's gonna work, we'll crush it. If it's not going to work, we'll know pretty soon. Below $9 we're out."

Here's the chart that has our attention:

The AVWAP from all-time lows is our support.

Right on. High potential reward for limited risk is my kind of play.

So we're going to play this one with a Bullish Risk Reversal, having naked short puts pay for our long calls exposure.

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Over the last month, we've been developing a variety of market breadth tools to use in crypto capital markets.

After working out a few technical kinks, we're happy to bring forward more of this analysis.

We recommend you read these two notes on crypto breadth to better understand our approach:

• Considerations for Using Market Breadth in Cryptocurrencies
• Crypto Market Breadth Is Here

Here's a quick rundown on what this analysis seeks to achieve.

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by H Partners Management, which reported an $11.6 million purchase in the theme park Six Flags $SIX.

The hedge fund has a total stake of 11.50% as well as a seat on the board.

Gas prices are going up?

Good.

That means our Energy stocks are probably doing well.

You see, we don't have any control over the cost of Energy. I don't work for the government. I'm not in the Energy business.

I don't know the first thing about drilling for Oil or Gas.

I'm just a random dude with a computer and some smart drinking buddies.

So for me, I have 2 choices:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar Index $DXY is trading at fresh highs. Take a look around the currency market. It shows.

Recent attempts to fade dollar strength have failed. The euro has fallen to its lowest level since late 2002. And we’re beginning to see forex pairs experience fresh breakouts in favor of the USD.

It’s certainly not the best look for risk assets. But it’s offering us great trading opportunities, not to mention some very valuable information.

A couple of pairs that are providing both are the USD/CNH and the USD/CNY. Let’s take a look!

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Risk On appetite missing from recent rally
• Bond yield momentum waning as financial stress remains low
• Intact dollar uptrend and rollover in copper/gold ratio are equity market obstacles

In the wake of the breadth and momentum thrusts seen over the first half of August, the market seems to be arguing that the path of least resistance is higher as we move into 2023. The macro backdrop almost guarantees that the way forward will be strewn with rocks and roots. The question is whether the obstacles will be significant enough to derail or delay the journey. We will look at several macro-related indicators that could help us anticipate a more or less treacherous road ahead.

Before we get to that, even in the wake of the recent thrusts there is room for further improvement from a market perspective. The turn higher in new highs versus new lows remains tenuous and a robust appetite for risk has been elusive. This Risk Off - Risk On Range-O-Meter compares where the ratios between the...

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

The stock making its way to today's post is part of the Capital Goods sector that has been performing well for a while now.

And guess what? We have a breakout! Do you know which stock we're talking about?

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is: