From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We hit the June lows in the S&P 500 but not the Nasdaq.

We did bounce off the lows, but last night $AAPL signaled trouble ahead and is cutting back production. The futures dropped on that news.

We continue to see insider activity in Adobe $ADBE this week.

This time, director David Ricks filed a Form 4 reporting purchases worth roughly $336,672.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The calls for a dollar top are growing louder as analysts claim the advance is overextended. 

They’re right. But pushing further into overbought territory is exactly what parabolic rallies do. And many of the technical tools supporting the thesis that the dollar is topping do not apply. 

In practice, mean reversion tools such as oversold/overbought conditions, price exceeding the upper bounds of a Bollinger Band, or the percentage gain above the moving average du jour are best used in trendless markets. 

Does the dollar look trendless? Absolutely not! 

Don’t let these data points distract you. Let’s instead put the current DXY advance into perspective by focusing on historical price action. 

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This market can't seem to get out of its own way.

The $SPY hit the 370 level, the $QQQ hit 379, and both reversed on a dime.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The earnings momentum trend rolled over last week. Our Macro Health Check now shows red lights (4) outnumbering green lights (2).

Why It Matters: The June stock market lows came with a macro backdrop that was challenging but stable. Stocks don’t move on good and bad, they react to better and worse. The macro environment is getting worse and holding support levels is more of a challenge. 

In taking a Deeper Look we will pull back the curtains on this checklist. We also look at how these latest developments are being reflected in investor risk appetite and where new risks might be developing.

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

As technical analysts, we pride ourselves on never being dogmatic in our approach.

Always being open to a variety of scenarios will always be a virtue for market analysts and traders who put money to work. We constantly play devil's advocate, questioning whether elements of our macro thesis hold up to criticism.

An integral part of this objective approach is to have a predetermined list of data points that would invalidate our initial models and theses.

In the case of the current market environment, we're of the view that if Bitcoin's holding its prior cycle highs of 18,000 and the S&P 500 is defending its June lows, we don't want to be looking for short opportunities.

Instead, we're better served either focusing on names shaping up as potential long candidates while remaining patient until a more defined directional bias can be ascertained.

But what if we take the other side of this discussion?

What if Bitcoin loses 18,000?

What if there's more pain ahead?

How will we adapt?

With a variety of risk markets pressing to the lower bounds of current trading...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Yesterday was a very volatile day, once again.

$SPY tested the 370 resistance level then headed downhill to 363.

ICONIQ Strategic Partners LP filed a Form 4 reporting the purchase of roughly $3.7 million in Braze Inc $BRZE.

The fund now has a total stake in BRZE of more than 28.70%.

The stock we're looking at this week is part of the Defence Industry Group. The focus is on sectors with clear direction.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning, it looked like the market could've trended higher.

I bought $SPY at 367.4 and it rallied to 370, a resistance level.