One of JC's favorite trades when volatility is spiking and bearish sentiment seems a little overdone on the downside is to either buy stock in Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B or even better -- sell some naked puts to fade the fear.
During our morning meeting today, JC was feeling that the time was right to pull the trigger on this idea again.
Selling naked puts is the move for us today, but we have to be aware that earnings are on the horizon in early November -- which may be accounting for some of the extra premium in November monthly expiration options.
As you can see from this chart, $BRK.B has undercut a significant level ever so slightly, but if this move is false, the whipsaw back up should be swift:
There's a lot that we can learn from Warren Buffett, who many consider to be one of the greatest investors of all time.
One of the most important lessons of all of them is that there are no called strikes on Wall Street. In other words, in liquid markets, you're not penalized for “missing” a trade.
The market doesn't guarantee traders much. But we can be certain there will always be future opportunities. We're not venture capitalists running rounds on private companies where a single deal can make or break our year.
Instead, we operate in public markets, where there will always be a multitude of setups.
In other words, we're not penalized for not swinging like we are in baseball.
With Bonds getting destroyed this year, it's put pressure on growth stocks, because of their long-duration characteristics.
As rates rise, it puts a lot of pressure on growth stocks. That's why historically the more Value oriented stocks and sectors tend to outperform when rates are rising.
When rates are falling that's when growth stocks usually thrive the most.
We all know this. The data is free.
BUT, a funny thing has happened over the last few months.
With bonds continuing to collapse and breaking those summer lows, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P500.
The calls for a dollar top are growing louder as analysts claim the advance is overextended.
They’re right. But pushing further into overbought territory is exactly what parabolic rallies do. And many of the technical tools supporting the thesis that the dollar is topping do not apply.
In practice, mean reversion tools such as oversold/overbought conditions, price exceeding the upper bounds of a Bollinger Band, or the percentage gain above the moving average du jour are best used in trendless markets.
The earnings momentum trend rolled over last week. Our Macro Health Check now shows red lights (4) outnumbering green lights (2).
Why It Matters: The June stock market lows came with a macro backdrop that was challenging but stable. Stocks don’t move on good and bad, they react to better and worse. The macro environment is getting worse and holding support levels is more of a challenge.
In taking a Deeper Look we will pull back the curtains on this checklist. We also look at how these latest developments are being reflected in investor risk appetite and where new risks might be developing.
As technical analysts, we pride ourselves on never being dogmatic in our approach.
Always being open to a variety of scenarios will always be a virtue for market analysts and traders who put money to work. We constantly play devil's advocate, questioning whether elements of our macro thesis hold up to criticism.
An integral part of this objective approach is to have a predetermined list of data points that would invalidate our initial models and theses.
In the case of the current market environment, we're of the view that if Bitcoin's holding its prior cycle highs of 18,000 and the S&P 500 is defending its June lows, we don't want to be looking for short opportunities.
Instead, we're better served either focusing on names shaping up as potential long candidates while remaining patient until a more defined directional bias can be ascertained.
But what if we take the other side of this discussion?
What if Bitcoin loses 18,000?
What if there's more pain ahead?
How will we adapt?
With a variety of risk markets pressing to the lower bounds of current trading...