There's lots of chatter about the Ethereum $ETH merge, and rightfully so.
It's a significant development for the entire space and is paving an ideological divide in the community from proponents of proof-of-work (PoW) to that of proof-of-stake (PoS).
But when it comes to our job as technicians -- that is, following money flow -- we like to sweep the narrative aside and see what's really happening.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like duck, then it's probably not a chicken.
That's how I look at what is potentially year 3 of a new bull market.
Look at all the most important cycle bottoms in stock market history.
You'll notice the powerful thrust in year 1, followed by a messy digestion of those gains in year 2. And then all those bull markets resumed in year 3:
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
New Lows Streak is Over
One thing that has been consistent this year is seeing more stocks hit new lows than new highs. We’ve witnessed this kind of bear market behavior every single week of 2022. Up until now, that is. For the first time all year, more stocks made new highs than new lows last week. This is a huge development because if the market truly bottomed and we’re in the early stages of a new uptrend, we’re going to need more new highs than new lows. It’s just math. Following 37 straight weeks of net new lows, seeing this streak come to an end is yet another big piece of evidence in favor of the bull camp.
Risk environment is still cautious as downtrends linger.
Macro situation is a concern but has not been causing stress.
Breadth thrusts are firing, participation is expanding and for the first time this year new high lists are longer than new low lists. From the perspective of market internals, the rally over the past two months could hardly have been stronger.
This strength is showing up in our bull market re-birth checklist. July brought upside volume thrusts and the first breadth thrust (based on the percentage of stocks making new 20-day highs) in over two years. Last week brought to an end the string of 37 consecutive weeks of more new lows than new highs on the NYSE+NASDAQ. The trend in our net new high advance/decline line also turned higher.
Broadly speaking, risk assets have caught a well-received bid over the last few weeks. This recent period has proven to be an incredibly risk-on tape.
When it comes to crypto, the big narrative driving capital markets seems to be the upcoming Ethereum $ETH merge. This update will see the network move away from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) framework.
Of course, as technicians, we naturally follow money flow as opposed to getting stuck in the weeds of narratives. It's quite clear to see traders are bidding Ethereum leading into the merge in what looks like a "buy the rumor, sells the news" event.
