Look, we're not going to sugarcoat it: it's hard out there right now.
Regardless of your timeframe, if you're trying to make aggressive long or short bets in this tape, you're getting chopped up. So are we.
These types of markets grind us out and wear us out. It is what it is. We can't choose the market we're given, we can only control how we react to it.
This much we know -- forcing directional bets right now feels like a fool's errand.
But with options premiums elevated across the board, there are opportunities to put on delta-neutral short premium trades where charts suggest some consolidation may be taking place. However, we need to be careful not to sell premium on stocks that have earnings releases coming up soon. So to avoid that all together, we're going to limit our universe to index and sector ETFs.
That is not a typo. I lost money on this trade. Actually, it was a series of trades. But it was executed with one decision and one combination of keystrokes.
It was the summer of 1998, and it was my first year trading.
The Long-Term Capital Management debacle was weighing on markets. There was money being made on the short side. Big money.
Many of the more successful traders in my office had already earned a boatload of cash with aggressive short trades on this particular morning. And at lunchtime, they decided to head out to the golf course to celebrate another day of crushing the markets.
But not me.
Nope, I was still a piker trader at that time, still trying to figure out how to stop losing money. So while the rest of the guys were high-fiving each other on the way out the door to the golf course, I stayed at my desk banging keys, trying to catch up to the big shots.
As we moved through the sleepy lunch hour, markets were showing signs of another leg down and I was building a short position in about 8-10 stocks. Slowly at first. Small amounts of shares. Nibbles, really.
Crypto and legacy markets have traded together for some time now. Apart from the recent lack of volatility in the former, it's all been one market.
We don't need to overcomplicate this.
Just look at the ratio of the High Beta ETF $SPHB against the Low Volatility ETF $SPLV overlaid with Bitcoin since the onset of the pandemic. They look pretty similar, right?
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us toward the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
The trend for bonds has been lower for two years, the trend for stocks turned South earlier this year and the trend for commodities rolled over last week.
Why It Matters: If the past pattern holds, the next trend change will be for bonds to turn higher. It’s hard to envision that with so much upward pressure on yields (in US & around the world). But if there is an unloved and under-owned asset, its bonds.
In taking a Deeper Look we look at why it may still be too early to get aggressive on bonds even though that is where we are likely to see leadership emerge.
One of the most valuable tactics I’ve learned in my career is the ability to capture a strong trend as it’s trending.
I’m not talking about FOMO buying or blindly chasing breakouts.
In my experience, buying strong trends requires patience and discipline.
Today, exercising these two key traits is especially necessary if you're trading the explosive US dollar.
Navigating the latter stages of the dollar rally presents challenges, particularly in dealing with heightened volatility. However, it doesn’t mean we can’t join in on this trend responsibly as it barrels down the tracks... or, in this case, up them.