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[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes

November 7, 2022
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Range Bound and Restless

The S&P 500 was down last week but remains above its June lows and below its August highs.

More Context: We can look up at the summer highs on the S&P 500, but as long as more stocks are making new lows than new highs the risk is that it is the summer lows that are in jeopardy of being broken. The degree and duration of downturns since 2015 has varied but a clear pattern has emerged: rallies are difficult to sustain if fewer stocks are making new highs than new lows. Clearing the August high for the S&P 500 likely means seeing the NYSE + NASDAQ new high lists getting longer than the new low list (which has happened only twice in the past 50 weeks).   

We take a Deeper Look at important ranges across the market and where we are seeing important breakouts rather than restless investors trying to anticipate the next move.  

FANG Hits New All-time Highs

November 7, 2022

If you read the subject line and didn't immediately know that this post was about energy stocks, then you probably watch too much television.

FANG has always been a Texas-based Oil & Gas E&P stock.

It has nothing to do with mega-cap growth.

It's quite obvious that many investors bought the wrong FANG.

And I say good. That makes this unwind we've been witnessing that much more explosive.

The more people getting smoked in Tech and other growth, the better it is for the rest of us who aren't stuck in that garbage.

My suggestion is to ignore the gossip columnists and focus some more on the only thing that actually pays anyone: Price

Here's Diamondback Energy $FANG breaking out this week to new all-time highs:

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

November 7, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • This week, our macro universe was positive as 64% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.89%.
  • Silver $SI was the big winner again, closing with an 8.55% gain.
  • The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -6.85%.
  • There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs, which remains at 6%.
  • 21% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
  • Meanwhile...
All Star Options

[Options Premium] There's Money to Be Made in Minerals

November 7, 2022

With strength starting to stand out in more and more sectors, we have a few good setups that we like for long trades here.

In chatting with our Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza today, he pushed me in the direction of today's trade by highlighting the fact that if this one moves, its likely to move much faster and stronger than a couple of the other ideas I was interested in.

And the options in this stock are set up in a way that we can play this idea with a simple long calls trade. I like that. So let's dig in.

Thankfully it's only price that pays anyone

November 6, 2022

The only way anyone gets paid around here is to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.

And not necessarily in that order.

Do you have a better way?

I've been doing this for 20 years and I have never seen any other way to profit.

You might enjoy pretending to know "why" a stock or group of stocks may be moving. But the market doesn't pay you to pretend to know why.

The market only pays us when we sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.

And this is all so funny to me, because I constantly see so many people focusing all their attention on everything BUT price.

That never made any sense to me.

All Star Charts Premium

Metals Are Making All the Right Moves

November 4, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals have been one of the weakest areas of the market this year.

It doesn’t matter if we’re talking about the materials sector, commodity space, base and industrial metals, or gold. These assets have carried nothing but downside risk.

But mix in a little dollar weakness, and we see an impressive display of strength. Metals are finally looking like they have something to prove.

Yes, it’s only one day of action. But it’s a day worth noting…

Check out the breakout in copper futures, posting its largest single-day return since 2009:

This is a big development for commodities and risk assets in general.

Copper has found support at its prior cycle peak and is now resolving higher from a three-month consolidation. One of the most-watched leading economic indicators is signaling all is well.

Based on Dr. Copper's bullish breakout, we would expect metal and mining stocks to join the party. ...