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The Do-Nothing Tape Resumes

November 3, 2022

Risk assets sold off following the latest move by the Federal Open Market Committee to hike interest rates by 75 basis points.

As always, we prioritize how markets price in these events and, ultimately, how they react to the actual print.

That's because the market is a forward-looking discount mechanism; price action reveals a collective expectation of events before they take place.

Rather than focusing on the minutiae of the CPI and/or the workings of the FOMC, we prioritize money flow.

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The Short Report (11-02-2022)

November 2, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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A Logical Place to Pause

November 2, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar has stopped going up!

In fact, it’s already registered a slightly lower high and lower low this past month. 

But we can’t call a top in the US dollar yet. While it came close to officially triggering a top last week, the lack of follow-through kept us in our seats.

With fresh monthly candles in the books, let’s review longer-term charts and reiterate key levels for ol’ King Dollar.

[PLUS] Dynamic Portfolio Management

November 2, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With fear subsiding but strength slow to emerge, downside tactical risks are rising. We reduced the equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity portfolio and have moved more cash to the sideline.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

November 2, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Households Stick With Stocks

Household equity exposure is ten percentage points below its November 2021 peak. Even with that decline, it is only now approaching its long-term average. Bond exposure remains below its long-term average and cash exposure in October moved above its long-term average for the first time since COVID.