[9/7: updated stop to 48. We're already #FreeRiding here, so whatever we sell the remaining portion of the position for is pure profit!]

According to "the news," Americans can't afford to buy homes and rising mortgage costs will only deepen the problem.

Cool story, bro.

Do you know what disagrees? The price of virtually every publicly traded homebuilding company. We're already long Lennar and Toll Brothers which continue to work for us.

Next up is KB Homes $KBH, which appears to be on the verge of a big breakout following a welcome response to its recent earnings report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commercial hedgers are taking an interest in the Canadian dollar. 

The CFTC has finally updated its records after the recent data breach.

And, as expected, we have some extreme positioning on our hands…

Check out the chart of Canadian dollar futures with the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) in the lower pane (red line for commercials, black for large speculators, and gray for small speculators):

Commercials hold their largest net-long position since early 2019. Extreme positioning such as this tends to mark key inflection points.

Why?

Because commercial hedgers represent the largest short sellers for any given market. And strong hands move markets.

Bottom line: When commercials get this bulled up on the Canadian dollar, forceful uptrends often follow as they unwind their position.

The stage is set for a rally, but it all comes down to price.

...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

You're seeing the permabears pointing to the Equally-weighted S&P500 falling down towards new 52-week lows relative to the Market-cap weighted version.

You can see what's happening here:

Today’s most significant insider transaction report is another Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A for Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

On Monday, Buffett disclosed an additional purchase of OXY shares worth roughly $216 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We're seeing a decent-sized gap up this morning.

Now we have to see if the indices hold on to the gap or back and fill.

Fresh two-year highs for the Gold/SPX ratio stand out this week, as gold outperforms its alternatives. It doesn't get much more bullish than fresh absolute and relative highs.

With that as our backdrop, I had Jason Perz @JasonP138 of Against All Odds Research on the show to share his view of the precious metals space.

If you’ve tuned in to either of my “Expiring Daily” Twitter spaces talks over the past two Mondays, you’ve heard me talking about a trading strategy I’m currently in the process of iterating that involves daily expiring options in the S&P 500 options complex ($SPY and $SPX options, specifically).

A thoughtful listener sent me an email with a bunch of questions about it, and I thought my answers to him might be enlightening to some of you who may be tinkering with strategy construction, particularly with short-dated, high-gamma options.

As I told the emailer, I can answer questions as of my thinking RIGHT NOW. But please know this is a work-in-process, and I’m continually tweaking my entry/exit/adjustment parameters as I learn more.

Here was our conversation:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market isn't mustering up the power to trend higher just yet.

I'd like $SPY to hold 392 and hopefully break above 400 in time.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Money flows to where it’s treated best.

That’s the foundational premise of relative strength studies. 

Remember, we always want to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. It sounds simple. But it’s impossible to overstate its importance.

One of the best ways to increase our probability of success is to buy assets that are trending higher on absolute terms while outperforming their alternatives.

Those are key ingredients of a strong uptrend. And it just so happens that gold checks both boxes…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Money flows to where it’s treated best.

That’s the foundational premise of relative strength studies. 

Remember, we always want to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. It sounds simple. But it’s impossible to overstate its importance.

One of the best ways to increase our probability of success is to buy assets that are trending higher on absolute terms while outperforming their alternatives.

Those are key ingredients of a strong uptrend. And it just so happens that gold checks both boxes…

Here’s a chart of gold futures posting fresh two-year highs versus the S&P 500 index:

The message comes through loud and clear: Rocks over stocks!

Silver is back above a crucial support level, and gold is reclaiming its former 2011 highs.

The precious metals space is starting to get spicy!

I imagine these rocks and their associated stocks will turn up the heat once the miners break out relative to the broader market.

Check out the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

For now, the GDX/SPY ratio continues to find support marked by a...