I tweeted that earlier today as I was feeling my position value decay away for no conceivable reason as the market was coasting sideways.
I felt helpless as my index options position was melting away, far beyond the level my theta risk suggested it would in a quiet market.
It turns out, the quiet market was precisely the reason.
It was a stark reminder to me: Long Vega also entails risks that I need to be aware of.
Most people, myself included, tend to worry about getting caught short volatility (short vega) in a market environment where volatility is rapidly rising. We’ve all heard the stories of traders holding naked short options that were overleveraged into a volatility spike. Those stories make the headlines. And rightfully so.
So it’s easy to forget that being long volatility can be just as painful when volatility is grinding lower as VIX certainly was today:
Other major global currencies are regaining lost ground following a year dominated by dollar strength. It shows in the US Dollar Index $DXY as it continues to slide back within its prior multi-year range.
Lower lows for the DXY will not instill confidence in dollar bulls. Meanwhile, savvy investors should take its performance as a signal to buy other currencies.
Here are two of my favorite setups from the forex markets…
Check out the GBP/USD pair on the verge of completing a multi-month reversal formation:
Last week we held our January Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each
Incoming economic data has been weaker than expected but our Macro Health Status report suggests the market is looking past current risks to brighter days - or perhaps it’s just whistling past the graveyard.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Consumers Favor Discretionary
The Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary vs. Equal Weight Consumer Staples ratio is resolving higher from a rounding bottom reversal pattern. Seeing this ratio make an upside resolution is a characteristic of bull markets as it indicates offensive positioning by investors and supports higher prices for risk assets.
The largest insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by EcoR1 Capital LLC, which reported a purchase of roughly $2.9 million in Zymeworks Inc $ZYME.
EcoR1 Capital also filed a Form 13G, disclosing a stake of 7.80% in the cancer biotech stock Janux Therapeutics $JANX.