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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold: Focus on Support as Supply Looms Large

May 8, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

There’s a mountain of bullish evidence supporting an upside resolution in gold. 

But gold hasn’t broken out. Not yet!

Gold has been running this race for months... at least, that’s how it feels.

Perhaps it’s simply making its way to the starting line…  

I believe that’s the best way to view gold and precious metals at this stage of the game. Before I get ahead of myself – marking a series of upside objectives – I want to highlight a key level that defines my intermediate- and near-term risks…

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The Minor Leaguers (05-08-2023)

May 8, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

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Follow the Flow (05-08-2023)

May 8, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold: Focus on Support as Supply Looms Large

May 8, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

There’s a mountain of bullish evidence supporting an upside resolution in gold. 

But gold hasn’t broken out. Not yet!

Gold has been running this race for months… at least, that’s how it feels.

Perhaps it’s simply making its way to the starting line…  

I believe that’s the best way to view gold and precious metals at this stage of the game. Before I get ahead of myself – marking a series of upside objectives – I want to highlight a key level that defines my intermediate- and near-term risks…

Last week, gold futures came within five dollars of breaking to new highs:

 

Close, but no cigar.

There’s still plenty of overhead supply at those former highs at approximately 2,089. But bulls remain in control based on the bullish momentum regime and the clear uptrend off the October 2022 lows.

The three-point bearish divergence on the 14-day RSI might not paint the most bullish picture. You could even argue the momentum divergence increases the likelihood of a correction.

But I want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt as long as price holds above...

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[Options Premium] Positioning Now for an NFL Boost

May 8, 2023

Full Disclosure: I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. As such, I'm excited about this upcoming NFL season. This is the year! Does this fact color my interest in today's trade? Maybe.

I get all my speculative juice in the financial markets. But there is a growing number of Americans who are jumping into online sports betting. The increases in both participation and dollars wagered is skyrocketing.

Today's trade is a bet on a continuation of this trend that will likely be driven by the next NFL season.

May Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

May 8, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our May Monthly Strategy Session last Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

Are You Buying Small-caps?

May 8, 2023

It's now or never.

The Russell2000 Small-cap Index is back down near last Summer's lows.

If there was ever a time for buyers to step up, it's right now.

And funny enough, relative to the Large-cap S&P500 Index, the Russell2000 is back down to the 2020 lows.

Again, if there was ever a time for buyers to step in, now is the time:

It's Not Just 5 Stocks

May 7, 2023

There's an ugly rumor going around that it's only a handful of stocks holding up this market.

The people telling you that are lying to you.

Here is our Hall of Famers list which consist of the largest stocks in the United States.

All the ones on this list are less than 5% from new 52-week highs: