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The One That Matters

March 23, 2023

We don't have bull markets without Financials.

Go back and check for yourself.

So this one, by definition, has to be the chart that matters the most.

Look at the Financial Sector Index currently retesting its former highs from before the Great Financial Crisis:

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The Short Report (03-22-2023)

March 22, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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Is the Yen About To Rip?

March 22, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke this afternoon after the central bank announced a 25-basis-point rate hike. 

The fed funds futures were all over the place, from pricing in a 25-basis-point increase to a double-hike. They settled in around a single hike, with a slim chance of a pause.

Exhausting!

It’s clear we can expect increased volatility going forward.

But, instead of guessing the Fed’s next step or parsing Powell's words, I’ll rather sit back, wait, and prepare to trade a decisive breakout.

When I think about the latter stages of the hiking cycle or a potential pause, my mind immediately turns to one currency in particular…

The Japanese yen.

Since the Fed began raising rates last spring, the yen has been one of the strongest trending markets. It stands to reason it could experience a significant trend reversal as the Fed changes course.

Luckily, we have a clear level to set our alerts and define risk. 

Check out the chart of yen futures:

The New Wild West of Options Trading

March 21, 2023

The shorter my timeframe, the shittier the market. ~ Brian Lund @bclund

That quote was uttered during a Twitter spaces I hosted yesterday in which we discussed the emergence of “0-DTE” options and the opportunities and challenges they are spawning.

As Brian brought up, the phrase “0-DTE” which stands for “zero days until expiration” is a bit of a misnomer as options that are expiring today were not necessarily first listed for trading on the same day that they expire. Regarding SPY or SPX options, some of these “daily” options are first listed for trading as far as two weeks from expiration day. So if you were to look at the options chain for SPY, you would see options expiring every day over the next two weeks.