Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke this afternoon after the central bank announced a 25-basis-point rate hike.
The fed funds futures were all over the place, from pricing in a 25-basis-point increase to a double-hike. They settled in around a single hike, with a slim chance of a pause.
But, instead of guessing the Fed’s next step or parsing Powell's words, I’ll rather sit back, wait, and prepare to trade a decisive breakout.
When I think about the latter stages of the hiking cycle or a potential pause, my mind immediately turns to one currency in particular…
The Japanese yen.
Since the Fed began raising rates last spring, the yen has been one of the strongest trending markets. It stands to reason it could experience a significant trend reversal as the Fed changes course.
Luckily, we have a clear level to set our alerts and define risk.
The shorter my timeframe, the shittier the market. ~ Brian Lund @bclund
That quote was uttered during a Twitter spaces I hosted yesterday in which we discussed the emergence of “0-DTE” options and the opportunities and challenges they are spawning.
As Brian brought up, the phrase “0-DTE” which stands for “zero days until expiration” is a bit of a misnomer as options that are expiring today were not necessarily first listed for trading on the same day that they expire. Regarding SPY or SPX options, some of these “daily” options are first listed for trading as far as two weeks from expiration day. So if you were to look at the options chain for SPY, you would see options expiring every day over the next two weeks.