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Will Bonds Catch Up to Tech Stocks?

May 18, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Tech stocks don’t care about the manufactured debt limit crisis. Nor are they bothered by the increasing probability of a rate hike next month.

Growth stocks seem concerned with only one thing – printing fresh highs.

The Tech sector ETF $XLK posted new 52-week highs yesterday. And the Communications ETF $XLC rallied within reach after taking out its Aug. ‘22 pivot highs. 

So where does that leave bonds and other long-duration assets? 

If these base breakouts across growth sectors hold, I imagine bonds have some serious catching up to do…

Why?

Growth stocks tend to trend with bonds since they’re both long-duration assets. Changes in interest rates directly impact US Treasuries and affect tech stocks more than other equities.

Check out the tight relationship between the Long-Term Treasury ETF $TLT and the Technology sector $XLK:

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The Short Report (05-17-2023)

May 18, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

Betting On More Rotation

May 18, 2023

Sector Rotation is the life blood of a bull market.

In the back half of last year, almost everything was working - except for some growth stocks and Tech.

Then came 2023. The best performers have been growth stocks and Tech.

That's what we mean by "sector rotation".

Last year they were all bitching about the fact that these Tech stocks and the Nasdaq weren't working, even through practically everything else was.

This year they're bitching that these Tech stocks are the only ones working (hint: they're not the only ones).

Large-cap Tech outperforming does not mean that market breadth is weakening. It just means that Large-cap Tech is outperforming.

This is classic sector rotation - a characteristic regularly found throughout bull markets.

So what comes next?

[Options] Does the Big Cat Have Any Fight In It?

May 17, 2023

[9/7: stop moved to 260. We're already #FreeRiding on this one. So whatever we sell the remaining position for is pure profit!]

Today's trade leans against a significant support level that we believe will hold. But because the stock is at such a delicate level where it could quickly collapse on us if the level doesn't hold, we're going to keep the play simple and cleanly define our risks.

A picture is worth a thousand words, so here's the chart of Caterpillar $CAT that's got our attention:

Buffett and Berkshire Are Buying More OXY

May 17, 2023

Fresh off their annual meeting, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway takes the spotlight on today’s hot list.

Buffett and Berkshire continue to accumulate shares of Occidental Petroleum $OXY, disclosing yet another purchase, this one worth roughly $125 million.