From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Yields are rising worldwide. 

US treasuries continue to fall after a brief pullback in price. 

Now, Chinese government bonds are pressing toward fresh lows.

Sovereign debt epitomizes downside risk. And Chinese bonds are on the cusp of a significant breakdown – a breakdown that spells more trouble for global bond investors.

Check out the VanEck China Bond ETF $CBON:

CBON aims to track the ChinaBond China High Quality Index (debt mainly issued by the People’s Bank of China). And like US treasuries, Chinese government bonds are flirting with fresh multi-year lows.

I have been adamant regarding a bearish bias toward US bonds. (In fact, I think they’re an excellent short.) 

A similar outlook extends to Chinese government-issued debt if and when...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Kevin Stein, director of Axalta Coating Systems Ltd $AXTA.

Stein reported a purchase of 36,600 AXTA shares, equivalent to $1 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is riding a thin line.

There's potential for $SPY to drop down to 440 if we can't rally above 446.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The S&P 500 dropped right down to the breakout level from last week.

Question is, do we hold or head down to 4,430, then 4415?

This index needs to hold above 4,475 to head back up hill.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

We publish this column every other week,...

He had it coming.

But this isn't really about Philip and his cancer sticks.

Instead, I'm going to sell premium in his Philip Morris stock options, betting on the company going nowhere for at least the next month.

First up, look at this chart:

We can clearly see the range contracting all year in $PM. Given what the broader stock market is doing, my bet is this range contraction continues.

Now the wrinkle we have to deal with is that Philip Morris is slated to release their next quarterly earnings statement on October 19, which is ONE DAY before October monthly options expire! That makes it tricky to be selling premium in the regular monthly options.

But the good news is, we can select the October 13 WEEKLY expiration options to express our trade.

Here's the Play:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Sylebra Capital Ltd, which revealed an additional purchase of $5.2 million in Impinj Inc $PI.

Patrick J. Heron, director of Mirum Pharmaceuticals $MIRM, revealed a purchase of 147,991 shares, equivalent to $3,884,763.

How was your summer?

Ready to make some money this Fall?

Last night was our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of Allstarcharts.

This is where we go over everything happening in the current markets.

The chart of the S&P500 is a great representation of the circumstances right now.

Stocks are correcting and stuck in a range during a perfectly normal time to be digesting their historic gains.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's slim pickings with stock selection. Not a ton of things looking great right now.

The indices are pulling in, and I'm watching the eight-day moving average on $SPY at 447.48.