One of the better indicators of a healthy bull market is when you see Consumer Discretionary stocks (the things we want) outperforming Consumer Staples stocks (the things we need).
The ratio between Discretionary and Staples is one we look at during bull markets, to confirm what the indexes are doing, as well as in bear markets to find divergences that may turn before the indexes themselves (see '08-'09).
This really has been one of the more reliable indicators for many years.
And wouldn't you know it, as pessimism spikes, volatility pops, and the permabears begin to pound their chest again, Discretionaries are putting in higher lows relative to Staples.
This is classic sector rotation we see during healthy market environments:
There are no free lunches on Wall Street and certainly not in options trading.
It might be sexy to tell people that we’re “options premium sellers” and suggest that all we do is sell naked options that expire worthless – while keeping all the premiums for ourselves. Easy peasy.
But we know that’s not really how it works.
There’s a risk in holding naked short options. Our brokerage houses are keenly aware of these risks – and that’s why they require us to post margin in order to hold these positions. The margin protects the house. Mostly their house, but our houses too.
When a short options position goes against us, our brokerages need to ensure we have adequate buying power in our accounts to close the position and prevent further losses.
But just because we need to post a certain amount of dollars to hold a position doesn’t mean we should calculate our returns off of that number. That number doesn’t mean anything other than the fact that it’s the amount the house needs in order to be comfortable with us being naked short.
If we’re measuring our returns in naked short options trades based on our margin requirement, we’re...
This has to be one of the world's most important trends right now. How could it not be?
You hear all this nonsense about the S&P493 and how it's only 7 stocks going up.
But those are just lies. That's not how the market works, and that is certainly not what's been happening this year.
The real trend here is in the outperformance of the largest companies, particularly mega-cap growth, relative to other indexes with more diversified sector exposure and market-caps.
This is the Nasdaq100 making new all-time highs relative to the much broader Russell3000 Index: