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[Options] Chew On This Trade!

December 27, 2023

Today's trade is in a name that has caught the fancy of aggressive short-sellers. As of the latest update, approximately 25% of the outstanding shares in Chewy Inc $CHWY are held in short positions.

Now, I'm sure the short-sellers have done their homework and have very compelling reasons to be short. I will concede their points to them.

However, short-sellers are human too. And being human means they can also be wrong. And if they are wrong, the only way they can make the losses stop is to buy stock to cover their short positions. If 25% of the float has to cover their shorts, that sets up the possibility of a wildfire to the upside.

We're here for that possibility.

Check out this chart:

CEO Hightower Reports a Big HPK Purchase

December 27, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by the CEO of HighPeak Energy Inc $HPK, Jack Hightower.

Hightower reported the acquisition of 150,442 HPK shares, equivalent to roughly $2.1 million.

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Under the Hood (12-26-2023)

December 27, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended December 22, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

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Follow the Flow (12-26-2023)

December 27, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Silver Miners Break Out

December 26, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The buzz around gold’s new all-time high is growing – and for good reason.

New all-time highs will likely become a regular occurrence in the coming quarters. 

But while gold makes headlines, my attention is on silver mining stocks…

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Silver Miners Break Out

December 26, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The buzz around gold’s new all-time high is growing – and for good reason.

New all-time highs will likely become a regular occurrence in the coming quarters. 

But while gold makes headlines, my attention is on silver mining stocks…

Check out the Silver Miners ETF $SIL carving out a potential double bottom:

 

SIL is printing fresh six-month highs as it trades back above its June peak.

I consider it a breakout.

Completing this near-term base will likely catapult these stocks through the polarity zone and the double bottom breakout level. 

I like SIL long – only if it’s above 28 – targeting 40 in the coming quarters.

Perhaps the upside objective sounds a bit overzealous.

But when we zoom out, it’s clear that SIL has serious ground to cover before reaching those former 2020 highs:

 

In fact, the 55 level marks a logical target for a longer-term position. 

Consider it our secondary target. If gold is bouncing to a steady beat of new all-time highs, SIL is running back to that decade-long resistance zone.

It’s the perfect environment for...

Director Rakolta Reports a Large ADC Buy

December 26, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by John Rakolta Jr,, director of Agree Realty Corporation $ADC.

Rakolta reported a ADC purchase with a total value of $832,627.

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International Hall of Famers (12-22-2023)

December 22, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Conserve Your Energy Trade

December 22, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are dominating the commodity space.

The rotation between energy and base & industrial metals colors the commodity markets as we near 2024.

Crude oil has slipped through buyers' hands since interest rates peaked in October. That much is obvious… 

But don’t short crude oil and its distillates just because copper and gold are catching a bid…

Check out the commodity subgroup performance since the US 10-year yield $TNX peaked in the fall:

Energy has clearly cooled, while precious and base metals have led the pack.

This makes sense as rates fall. But markets don’t move in a straight line.

Notice the equal-weight energy index stopped falling mid-month around the same time it ran into a logical area of support relative to the equal-weight base and industrial metals index.

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