Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, advancing the messy price action over the last few months.

February is a seasonally strong month for crypto, with Bitcoin closing higher 80% over the last decade.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over 150,000 BTC under their AUM despite outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.

$900M tokens are to be unlocked in February across major crypto projects.
 

FEATURED CHART

We’re always on the scout for leadership, irrespective of the market environment. With most crypto assets selling off following the ETF approvals, there have been a small number of outliers. Chainlink $LINK is one that comes to mind after continuing to work higher, while the price action in the majors has been rather lackluster.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

As we continue to say, we’re monitoring this trading range in Bitcoin. If prices remain stuck between 40,000 and 45,000, we’re anticipating more messy...

This is the video recording of our February 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended February 2, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Analyzing Unusual Options Activity | The Flow Show https://t.co/XsSONHUcYV

— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 ( formerly @chicagosean) (@OptionsSean) February 5, 2024

Today on The Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza chatted about the current $VIX environment, the potential for sideways, volatile trading action, and our internally diverging views on the overall market (JC is getting more bearish, Strazza is still flying the Bull Flag, and I'm closer to Switzerland).

As we dug into it, Strazza floated a couple ideas in the Healthcare space that made sense to me once we fleshed it out.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment in USO.
3. No exits since last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Check out the iShares Silver Trust ETF $SLV retesting a critical former support level at approximately 20.50:

Perhaps it’s not the cleanest level. 

Nevertheless, plenty of price memory exists at this shelf of former lows. If SLV undercuts those former lows, precious metals will fall under increased selling pressure.

Gold futures will break down below 2,000. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX will fade below 30. And the handful of breakouts we’ve witnessed over the past few months will fail.

Plus, the silver-to-gold ratio will likely post a fresh 52-week low:

It’s another breakdown gold bugs prefer to avoid.

Silver dropping relative to gold signals a low turnout as investors are being rewarded...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via Form 4 filings by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett and Berkshire reported additional purchases in The Liberty SiriusXM Group  for a total amount of $55,438,736.

The market wasted no time starting to sell off in the month of February.

Remember, this is historically one of the worst months of the year to own stocks.

Also, the best 3 month period of the year (Nov-Jan) just came to an end.

So if stocks weren't selling off, that would be weird.

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

The messy price action in cryptocurrencies continues as several bearish price divergences creep up in equity markets.

Positioning and sentiment within crypto markets have cooled off as price action 

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has experienced its first day of higher volumes than Grayscale’s $GBTC product.

FEATURED CHART

As crypto prices continue to churn sideways, interest in the spot market has dwindled. Bitcoin’s spot volumes have declined to their pre-ETF hype levels. Combined with other confirming indicators, both in the derivatives markets and on-chain, it paints a picture where the consensus bullish sentiment has cooled off in a healthy fashion.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

We’re still continuing to monitor this trading range in Bitcoin. If prices remain stuck between 40,000 and 45,000, we’re anticipating more messy price action in the short-term.

Stocks move first, and then the indexes follow.

It's a market of stocks, remember?

And while the S&P500 may have just had its 4th consecutive weekly gain of at least 1%, the stocks themselves are NOT doing that.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.