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Your Catalyst For Selling

February 5, 2024

The market wasted no time starting to sell off in the month of February.

Remember, this is historically one of the worst months of the year to own stocks.

Also, the best 3 month period of the year (Nov-Jan) just came to an end.

So if stocks weren't selling off, that would be weird.

All Star Charts Crypto

Morning Crypto Clarity: February 5, 2024

February 5, 2024

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

 

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

The messy price action in cryptocurrencies continues as several bearish price divergences creep up in equity markets.

Positioning and sentiment within crypto markets have cooled off as price action 

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has experienced its first day of higher volumes than Grayscale’s $GBTC product.

 

FEATURED CHART

 

As crypto prices continue to churn sideways, interest in the spot market has dwindled. Bitcoin’s spot volumes have declined to their pre-ETF hype levels. Combined with other confirming indicators, both in the derivatives markets and on-chain, it paints a picture where the consensus bullish sentiment has cooled off in a healthy fashion.

 

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

We’re still continuing to monitor this trading range in Bitcoin. If prices remain stuck between 40,000 and 45,000, we’re anticipating more messy price action in the short-term.

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Divergences Add Up Ahead of Rug Pull

February 3, 2024

Stocks move first, and then the indexes follow.

It's a market of stocks, remember?

And while the S&P500 may have just had its 4th consecutive weekly gain of at least 1%, the stocks themselves are NOT doing that.

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International Hall of Famers (02-02-2024)

February 2, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Sick of Whipsaws? Hogs Can Help

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures:

These two markets tend to peak and trough together, often trending in the same...

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Here Comes The Rug Pull

February 2, 2024

There's nothing like a good rug pull.

Especially when I'm able to make money from it.

This is the type of environment where they happen.

Some of our biggest clients are hedging their positions by buying puts.

Some are outright net short.

It all depends on what you're trying to accomplish as an investor.

Here are a few of the many warning signs we're seeing out there:

Look at High Beta rolling over last month, while S&Ps kept roaring higher.

Not to mention the Dollar strength we're seeing is off the charts. There's your divergence in EM currencies.

And of course, we've already discussed...

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[Options Premium] Meanwhile, We’re Hedging

February 2, 2024

We’re gonna keep this quick cuz I’m on the road doing errands.

I just got off the phone with JC, who called me in the car. His “spidey senses” are tingling and he thinks there might be a low-risk/high-reward opportunity to short the broader indexes here.

He likes it both as a standalone bearish bet and as a portfolio hedge against a bunch of longs that are working for us right now.

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[Options Premium] Traveling Higher

February 2, 2024

Today's trade is a "keep it stupid simple" kinda trade that might take a little intestinal fortitude if you do not enjoy buying stocks at all-time highs.

But in my experience, these are the types of stocks that continue to defy odds.

So let's get after it.

Director Katabi Reports a $5 Million VERA Purchase

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a series of Form 4 filings by Maha Katabi, director of Vera Therapeutics $VERA.

Katabi reported a purchase of 161,290 VERA shares, equivalent to $5 million.