In Monday’s letter, we walked through how we’re monitoring Bitcoin’s downside risks in the face of an incredibly strong tape. Even though this environment is unequivocally rewarding buyers, it’s always prudent to manage our risks as traders and investors. There is still a probability that Bitcoin consolidates it’s gains near the former all-time highs achieved in 2021; but at the same time, we need to let money flow dictate our execution, not opinions.
So in keeping true to this theme, today’s letter will cover a number of new trade ideas we’re monitoring.
Every once in a while, I’ll put on what I call “all or nothing” trades.
What this means in practice is that I’ll put on a defined risk options trade knowing full well that the trade is either going to net a profit, or it’s going to be a zero – a full loss of invested capital. There’s no in-between.
Usually, this happens because I love a setup, but the price level on the chart that would invalidate my thesis is pretty far away. If we get there, it’s more than likely that whatever premium I paid to enter the trade will have nearly evaporated. There will be nothing left to sell, even if I want to.
Two trades with March expiration options have concluded for me this week that demonstrate the yin and yang of these types of trades.
On Feb. 14, I put on a bearish bet in Hormel Foods $HRL. I bought the March 25 puts for 15 cents. This trade was put on at a time when I was looking to add some bearish exposure to my portfolio to help balance out the heavy long exposure I had in other...
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...
Steve Strazza and I hosted another Flow Show today on Stock Market TV and discussed opportunities in the Biotech space.
Starting at an index level, we see that biotechs are clearing a base and appear set on breaking out:
From there, we started diving into some individual biotech names to play the breakout, but many of the charts offered unique challenges that made it tricky to pick one to take the most advantage or the sector breakout.
So when that happens, sometimes the best move is simply to buy the index!
And that's what we're going to do here, using the sector ETF $XBI as a vehicle for expressing our bet.
But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…
Gold futures sliced through our breakout level last week, closing at record highs:
Unbelievable… Or, better yet, undeniable.
Gold not only hit a new all-time high, it broke out with authority as it gained more than 4% last week.
The path of least resistance points higher toward 2,500 (our initial objective). But the price of gold could go much higher.
Gold is embarking on a new secular bull run:
As it rips to new heights, it will take the entire metal and mining space along for the ride.
But we’re in the early innings of an uptrend that could last for years to come.
Instead of catching falling knives or taking cute catch-up trades, it’s best to simplify our strategy and buy the strongest names.
Gold mining stocks have suffered for years, and a handful of names were absolutely clobbered last month. A few gold miners are even offering up the mother-of-all mean...