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Tracking a Bond Market Bounce

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.

Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!

It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…

The Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is coming off extreme oversold readings on the 14-day RSI, highlighted in the lower pane:

Over the past two years, oversold conditions at these levels have coincided with near-term bottoms for long-duration bonds.

Based on the chart, TLT looks poised for a mean-reverting rally.

Let’s zoom in…

Check out the daily chart carving out a potential six-week reversal formation:

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The Short Report (11-16-2023)

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

Baker Bros Reports a $23 Million MDGL Buy

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Baker Bros Advisors LLC.

The hedge fund revealed a purchase of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc $MDGL worth $23 million.

Making a Bearish Bet This Week

November 16, 2023

This is a raging Bull Market in stocks.

Seasonal strength is kicking in, right in time.

We'll be discussing this all on Monday night @ 6PM ET during our LIVE Conference Call. Premium Members can Register Here.

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. This cycle is clearly no different.

And breadth expansion reigns. Remember all these angry people telling you how Small-caps were going to drag the rest of the market lower?

It's actually been the exact opposite.

All of this is perfectly normal. Take the time to go back and see for yourself.

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The Dollar Bends Down Low

November 15, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar has gone from slinging cheese to lobbing cookies.

Sellers finally got ahold of the US Dollar Index $DXY on Tuesday, sending it on its steepest single-day decline since October 2022.

Recall what followed for the dollar…

The DXY formed a major top and fell victim to not one but two subsequent 1 percent-plus daily drawdowns. 

Check out the DXY chart with the one-day rate-of-change in the upper pane:

The DXY dropped almost 1.5% during Tuesday's session. That’s a huge move for a currency (with the exception of the Turkish lira and perhaps the Polish zloty).

[Options] Lilting Lillies

November 15, 2023

Today, a "darling" company in the media thanks to new obesity drugs and other good news hitting the media airwaves is selling off. In fact, its having its worst day relative to its sector peers in many years.

Someone forgot to tell Eli Lilly $LLY that a new bull market run may recently have gotten under way. Of course, it was already way ahead of the game. In fact, look at this long-term chart:

These aren't usually the trends I like to take the other side of.

But perhaps it's gone on a little too long and it's ready to pause and retrace?

This stock could get cut in half and the long-term trend would still be intact.

When we zoom in a little closer, we see a very notable (and sizeable) gap from this summer where the stock jumped from $450 per share to north of $500 per share overnight:

Decheng Reports a Big ALPN Buy

November 15, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Today’s most significant insider transaction comes in a Form 4 filing by Decheng Capital Management, a hedge fund focused on investing in early-stage life science companies.

Decheng reported a purchase in the biotech company Alpine Immune Sciences $ALPN worth more than $4.6 million.

This is just the beginning....

November 15, 2023

This is the best time of the year for stocks.

And stocks are doing very well.

In other words, perfectly normal market behavior.

In fact, this is exactly when Small-caps historically start to outperform their large-cap counterparts.

And sure enough, that's exactly what we're seeing.

Here's a great chart from Jeff Hirsch and Jay Kaeppel showing these seasonal tendencies: