From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

Cocoa futures have violated a parabolic trendline. 

And it may not be safe for bulls to hold their long positions…

Cocoa fell -2.50% on Monday, cementing last week’s trendline break.

Commodity markets tend to experience steep selloffs following dramatic rallies. Escalator up, elevator down.  

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Inflation is proving sticky.

So what?

Stocks remain buoyant.

And bonds – the largest market in the world – continue to reveal a risk-on environment.

High-yield bonds relative to Treasuries measure risky junk bonds' performance versus the safest fixed-income asset, US Treasury bonds. 

The key characteristics of these assets create a critical risk gauge for bond and equity markets, as risk-seeking behavior in the bond market also bodes well for risk assets.

Check out the High Yield versus US Treasury Bond ratio ($HYG/$IEI):

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

In today's post, we’ll discuss the importance of four key indexes and what they can tell us about the future direction of the overall market.

All these groups provide an excellent overview of the current market environment and risk appetite. 

If you want to know where the broader market is headed, these are the charts to watch.

Here they are:

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new position today.
2. Adjustment today in TLT.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a 13G filing by Baker Bros Advisors LP.

The hedge fund increased its ownership position in Kymera Therapeutics Inc $KYMR from 9.2% to 10.8%.

US Treasury Bonds continue to be one of the best ways to underperform during bull markets.

Yesterday the Nasdaq100 closed at new ALL-TIME highs relative to US Treasuries.

In bull markets, the best stocks not only do well on an absolute basis, but they also outperform their alternatives.

Treasury Bonds are a good alternative to stocks, of course. Just not during raging bull markets:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

Today's trade is in a name that many American shoppers are familiar with.

You've probably seen TJ Maxx stores everywhere, frequently located in strip plazas throughout the suburbs. And there's a good chance your family has dropped some loot in there, taking advantage of the deals they are famous for.

JC commented today that he's invested in $TJX in his long-term account as a hedge for his wife's spending at this store. I think many of us can relate.

But what's got me most excited about this setup is the recent base just below $100, which would be an all-time high. Around here, we call that the hundred-dolla-roll, and it's one of my favorite setups:

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. New position in XLI.
2. No adjustments today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a 13G filing by Biotechnology Value Fund.

The investment partnership increased its stake in Kymera Therapeutics Inc $KYMR from 8.45% to 10%.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

When we talk about market bellwethers, we are referring to large-cap equities that indicate the broader market's future direction.

These stocks often have a heavy weighting in the most important sectors and indexes, as well as a notable economic impact due to their size and influence.

The world's largest bank and financial institution, JPMorgan Chase $JPM checks all these boxes and more.

For that reason, we treat JPM as an index itself. Basically, as JPMorgan goes, the market goes.