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Selling Naked as a Philosophy

February 1, 2024

Let me remind everyone what a bad idea it is to sell naked calls.

We don't do it.

I often want to do it.

Many times, it makes sense to do it.

But the answer is always no.

It's just not worth it.

Go ask around. The old timers will tell you.

"Don't do it kid"

But that doesn't mean that as a philosophy, we shouldn't approach the market with that sort of "naked call selling" mentality, at least for the foreseeable future.

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2 to 100 Club (01-31-2024)

January 31, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

These Three Energy Stocks Are Ready To Rip

January 31, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No Santa Claus rally, no worries.

So Santa was a no-show this season. The Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, and Papa Dow are still managing to post positive monthly returns heading into January’s close.

That's an auspicious data point for the rest of the year.

Beneath the surface, last quarter’s laggards are also playing catch up to the leadership groups…

Why It's Time To Short Stocks

January 31, 2024

I really like the risk vs reward from the short side here.

The divergences and rotation into defensives are finally there.

The Dollar has been strong throughout all of January.

That was the first heads up.

The new highs list peaked in mid-December on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

So you can argue that we've been in a correction already, and that's it's just about to get worse.

And then here's what really did it for me.

It's the rotation into defensives that is the make or break for this bearish approach to the market:

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[Options Premium] A Short Mosaic

January 31, 2024

It doesn't happen very often that a bearish setup presents an opportunity for us to position with a simple long puts purchase. Usually, when we want to buy puts, the whole world is on to the idea and the premiums in the options market reflect that.

But today, we've got a situation where a stock is flirting with breaking a key support level, and the options market is pricing in a smaller move than our research suggests is possible.

 

GSK Reports $16.5 Million of WVE Purchases

January 31, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a series of Form 4 filings by GSK plc.

The British multinational pharmaceutical company reported a purchase of $16.5 million in Wave Life Sciences Ltd $WVE.

Why Today is Such a Special Day

January 31, 2024

When you wake up knowing that you have a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks waiting for you at the end of the day, it's a great feeling.

Enjoy it.

But I believe it also helps to be grateful.

I think you have to be.

Just think about all of the less fortunate investors around the world who don't get to appreciate such a feeling.

In some cases, it's just because they're lazy and don't feel like doing the work. It does take all of 15 minutes.

But in most cases, they don't even know.

They have no idea how much information and perspective their losing out on.

It's a great arbitrage that I'm happy to celebrate with all of you every month.

This is the cheat code!

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Follow the Aussie’s Next Move

January 30, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The entire marketplace is fixated on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Will the Fed make its first rate cut in March, or will it be in June?

Who knows.

I enjoy speculating as much as the next guy, but I’m not into guessing on next moves by central bankers.

I prefer to track another market participant with a Ph.D. in economics, Dr. Copper.

And we can’t discuss copper without including the Australian dollar!

Check out the Australian dollar overlaid with copper futures:

They look almost identical.

I added a 10-day rolling correlation study in the lower pane, highlighting the tight relationship over shorter time frames.