Bond Report: The Fed Isn’t Driving. It’s Getting Dragged.

The Fed doesn’t set the tone. It reacts to it.
 Always has. Always will.

This week, Waller gave the usual hint:
 "A serious drop in the job market could prompt more cuts, sooner."

Translation? The Fed knows it's behind. The bond market figured it out months ago.

The real story is written in the chart.
 The 2 Year Treasury Yield is the market’s forward looking Fed whisperer.
 Every cycle, the 2 year tops first. Every cycle, the Effective Federal Funds Rate follows like a lost puppy.

• When the 2 year peaks and rolls, the Fed has no choice but to cut.
• Markets aren’t asking politely for cuts — they’re already forcing them.

Right now, the  2 year is falling hard. That isn't a forecast.
 It’s the bond market screaming: "You're done here."

It’s not about what Powell says.
 It’s about what price is already telling you.

The mistake most investors make is listening to speeches instead of structure.
 They wait for a decision long after the real opportunity has passed.

If you want to see the future, stop watching the microphone. Watch the chart.
 Because by the time the Fed finally acts, the market has already moved.=

Want more setups where price leads and policy follows?
 Join All Star Charts.
 We follow structure. Not headlines. Always have. Always will.

- All Star Charts Team