I've got some good news, some not so good news, and some outright bad news.
Let's dive in.
First of all, these are all concepts that were discussed at length on our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session last week, so check out the full video here.
As an update, here's the most bullish thing happening in stocks right now. Both Germany and Hong Kong closed the week at new highs. These are new 3-year highs for the Hang Seng and new all-time highs for the DAX:
If there was some sort of Global Crisis or Credit Event of any kind, my bet is NOT that these two major indexes would be breaking out to new highs.
These are not safe havens where investors can hide out and wait for the storm to pass. It's quite the opposite actually.
So strength out of these areas above points to bullish and healthy markets.
This next one isn't so great, but it's not the end of the world either.
We're looking at Semiconductors relative to the S&P500. Keep in mind that Semis are a leading indicator for Tech, which is the largest sector in the U.S. by far.
Semiconductors are attempting to complete a massive top relative to the rest of the market, which would be a huge loss for the equities bulls.
This chart above getting back above all those support levels from the past year would be a big comeback win for the bulls. I think that's what it would take to invalidate any of the recent bearish developments out of Semis and Tech in general.
This last one is probably the most bearish data I've got in my entire system.
In healthy markets, you tend to see the % of stocks above their 200 day moving average to be above 60. It's now in the 40s...
To be fair, we've seen this breadth gauge hit lower readings during this bull market. In October of 2023, for example, this one got down into the 20s before recovering.
So it's not like the market is crashing. But we can certainly point to some of the work that needs to be done here to see improvement.
What we like to do around here is weigh all the evidence and decide whether we want to be spending our time looking for stocks to buy, or whether we should be spending more time looking for stocks to sell.
Should be aggressively positioning ourselves into U.S. equities, or in the safe haven of other assets like Gold or Bonds?
These are the reasons why we put in so much work, to decide how we want to spend our time.
There's a lot happening in the markets right now, so last night I went LIVE with Steve Strazza to discuss all things Crypto, Tech stocks, and what investors need to watch right now in this environment.
We broke it all down in our live event at the closing bell:
📉 Why crypto’s unwinding and what’s next.
📈 Where the real momentum is right now.
💰 How we’re doubling trades — even in a weak market.
