The Greenback often dips toward year-end. It’s the usual seasonal pattern.
And this price behavior is even more pronounced in election years.
The gray line shows how the dollar tends to give back a good deal of gains toward the end of election years.
Historically, this happens just after a big post-election spike… like the one we just experienced.
Now, the dollar is at the top of the range it has been in for the last two years.
If a reversal is going to happen, it is going to move lower when it bounces off of this resistance zone between 106 and 107.
I mentioned this move higher before the election, and once the post-election bump fades, usually within a few weeks, the dollar retreats lower.
If the crypto market has been this strong in the face of a rising dollar… Imagine what it looks like if the dollar begins falling?
Following the 2016 election, the dollar plummeted, igniting one of Bitcoin's largest bull runs in history. Similarly, after the 2020 election, Bitcoin surged from $15K to $63K in a weak dollar environment.
A down dollar is likely to be a major tailwind for Bitcoin again.
I think it’s about to happen.
And this kind of intermarket landscape would pave the way for a massive Q4 rally, not just for BTC, but for the broader stock market.
We’ll continue to monitor the dollar closely for evidence that this is where we’re headed.
-Allstarcharts Team
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