(Commodities Weekly) This Juice is Worth The Squeeze 🍊

Amid historic market volatility, we're looking for uncorrelated trades.

Whether that's Crude Oil, Lumber, or Orange Juice.

Trading commodities doesn't just offer lucrative risk versus reward opportunities, but it also has a very low correlation to other asset classes.

For example, Orange Juice was in a steady uptrend from 2020 until the end of 2024. 

It didn't care about the bear market in 2022. 

And it certainly doesn't care about the bear market in 2025.

This was the best week for the juice since 1998, and we think it has the potential to rally more for the foreseeable future.

This is why we talk about polarity so much 👇

As you can see, Orange Juice futures have been in free fall since peaking in December. 

It fell over 60% from peak to trough in just a few months.

In February, we wrote about how the market had been locked limit down for 14 consecutive days. It was a historic collapse...

The 14-day RSI was at its lowest level since 1989. The bulls were being carried away on stretchers.

Then, last Tuesday, the price stopped falling and reversed higher. It's up over 35% since then...

Traders who don't follow the charts were shocked by this. 

We weren't, though. Here's why:

Former resistance, once broken, becomes support.  

Former support, once broken, becomes resistance.

The price stopped falling at the exact level it peaked in 1977, 1984, 1988, 2006, 2011, and 2016.

Buyers didn't just randomly show up at this level...

This phenomenon isn't new. It has existed for centuries, and it will persist for centuries to come.

On Tuesday, JC pointed out how the major equity indexes were testing key levels of polarity.

The next day was one for the history books.

OJ is squeezing 👇

Orange Juice futures have carved out a textbook bullish momentum divergence on the daily chart.

This is formed when the price continues to make lower lows, but the momentum (14-day RSI) makes a series of higher lows. 

It's the market's way of telling us a product is "sold out."

The sellers had their time, but none are left at current prices.

If the price can reclaim the key pivot low from last January, our bias will shift to the upside.

We're buying Orange Juice futures on strength above 290, with a target of 370 over the coming 1-3 months.

Are you with us? Let us know what you think.

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we're outlining the $5B specialty chemicals stock, NewMarket $NEU.

The company produces various petroleum additives like engine oil, metalworking fluids, lubricants, etc.

Price is consolidating after a massive uptrend from 2022 to 2024 and is retesting a key level of interest. 

The stock has a well-defined level against which to define our risk, and the upside potential is tremendous.

Here's how we're trading NEU👇