Investors in the United States are panicking because their tech stocks are sucking.
Their irresponsibly large positions in Microsoft and Nvidia have come around to bite them in the rear.
Which investors have been sheltered from this pain? The ones who own Energy stocks!
These shareholders have, for the most part, been treated poorly over the last 15 years.
However, that wasn't the case in the post-COVID bull market. It also hasn't been the case so far this year.
Energy has been the best sector so far in 2025:
As you can see, the Energy Sector SPDR $XLE is up over 8% this year. It's the best-performing sector.
Conversely, Technology $XLK and Consumer Discretionary $XLY have been significant laggards. They're the only sectors trailing the S&P 500.
We think this relative strength from energy can persist. Here's why 👇
Energy stocks are above key levels of former resistance:
The NYSE Natural Gas Index $XNG and the NYSE Oil & Gas Index $XOI are both in the process of resolving multi-decade basing patterns.
Structural trend reversals can be messy, but the path of least resistance is slowly shifting from sideways to higher.
These indexes are composed of energy stocks from around the world. They're not limited to U.S. stocks like the Energy Sector SPDR.
International exposure is a good thing. That's where the relative strength is!
So, what kind of energy do we want to buy?
Going back to 1984, April is the best month of the year for Crude Oil:
Historically, the spring months have been the sweet spot for owning black gold futures. Conversely, the winter months have consistently been the worst.
We like to have seasonality working for us as a tailwind. At the end of the day, though, price is the ultimate arbiter of truth.
Black gold futures look bearish over longer timeframes:
The inverted chart of Crude Oil futures is flirting with the resolution of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
This means the path of least resistance for oil prices is potentially shifting from sideways to lower.
This week, we're outlining the $7B integrated oil and gas stock, National Fuel Gas $NFG.
The company was founded in 1902 and operates through the following segments:
Exploration and production
Pipeline and storage
Utility
Energy marketing
It's basically a vertically integrated natural gas business. It has a tremendous track record, too.
They have increased their dividend payment for over 50 consecutive years. It currently yields more than 2.5%.
The stock is printing fresh all-time highs and resolving a textbook multi-decade accumulation pattern. We think this is the beginning of a brand-new primary uptrend that could last many years.
Here's how we're trading NFG 👇
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