Skip to main content

(Commodities Weekly) Grab Your Popcorn, Folks: This Commodity is Breaking Out📈🍿

February 14, 2025

February is historically one of the best months of the year for commodities. This year is no different.

Coffee is like a freight train. It keeps chugging along to new all-time highs

Natural gas has rallied over 20% so far this month.

Dr. Copper is challenging a key level of interest and flirting with a multi-decade base breakout.

But what continues to stand out the most to us is the grain markets.

Last week, we outlined why we're buying soybeans

Now, we're looking at purchasing corn futures.

Check out the commercial hedger positioning in popcorn👇

As you can see, the best time to buy corn futures is when the commercial hedgers flip from a net-long position to a net-short one.

If you had bought popcorn kernels in late 2020 when this happened, you would've made over 100% in seven months.

The most recent flip happened in early November 2024. Since then, it has rallied over 20% and looks poised to accelerate to the upside.

In addition, the price is testing a key level of interest. This is where we want to define our risk and get long.

Here's how we're trading corn futures:

We're buying corn futures on strength above 496.50, with a target of 531.50 and 622 over the coming 2-4 months.

Are you buying corn with us? Let us know what you think.

Commitment of Traders Highlights

  • Commercial hedgers trimmed over 35,000 contracts from their net-short corn position.
  • Commercials added over 50,000 contracts and hit a fresh 3-year extreme net-short position in U.S. 30Y T-Bonds.
  • Commercial hedgers added over 1,200 contracts and flipped net-long bitcoin.

👉 Click here to download the All Star Charts COT Heatmap 

Commodities Trade of the Week

Today, we're outlining the $128B farm and heavy construction machinery stock, Deere $DE.

They're known for painting all of their machinery green and yellow. Jason Aldean's song "Big Green Tractor" is the anthem for farmers who use John Deere tractors.

It's a classic.

Although they have been around since 1837, this isn't the same company your grandpa knew many years ago.

The company is much more focused on technology now than ever before. They are significant beneficiaries of the rise in automated driving. 

More importantly, the stock is resolving a multi-year accumulation pattern, and we think it's in the early stages of a brand-new uptrend.

Here's how we're trading DE: 👇

You need to have a subscription to access this content in full.

Log in or subscribe