In traditional markets, we've been making the case that they've been a big fat mess.
So with all things considered, the alpha taking place within crypto has been catching our attention. But even this asset class has succumbed to the choppy action experienced elsewhere.
The bottom line is that if Bitcoin's below 46,000, the probability of success in new long positions reduces.
Looking more tactically, 44,000 is another critical inflection point. Not only does this conjuncture represent the 38.2% retracement from the recent thrust higher, but also the AVWAPs from all-time highs and July lows, as well as the 50-day moving average.
If we hold above 44k, things are likely not completely falling apart, and though the near-term trend is still choppy, there will still continue to be winners under the surface.
Alternatively, if we're below 44,000, the risk is well defined for a tactical short back to 41,000, which represents Bitcoin's June highs. We'd anticipate a retest of the low 40,000's would be met with substantial demand.
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