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Options Trade of the Week

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Pardon The Price Action

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It's Just 30 Stocks. Let's Go Through Each of Them.

December 23, 2024

Don't Fight Papa Dow. That's how I learned it.

And it's not just about the Dow Jones Industrial Average itself. It's the 30 stocks that make up the index that we're even more interested in.

If you get the direction of these 30 stocks right, you'll get the market right.

Don't believe me? Go overlay a chart of the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They're the same.

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Republicans Hate It

December 22, 2024

I just got back from a week in Disney with a 4yr old and twin 2yr olds. Wow what a workout! 

The experience further reiterated why I'm long $DIS and why I'm going to buy more.

They got some racket going down there in Florida. $12 hot dogs? $15 popcorn? And lines around the corner with people waiting to buy them?

That's some hustle they got. Good for them.

The way I see it, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em right? You can get frustrated by the money suck if you want, or you can be a shareholder and profit right along with them. I chose the latter when I got back from this Disney trip a year ago.

But let me tell you this, the $12 hot dogs and $300 princess dresses are NOT why I'm long the stock. 

It's that the republicans hate it. They don't like how "woke" the company has gotten. 

And since we know that humans have a hard time separating a company and a stock, there is money to be made here by exploiting those who let their politics and "morals" influence their decision making in public markets.

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Here Comes Santa Claus

December 21, 2024

This year's Santa Claus Rally Period starts on Tuesday.

To clear up any confusion, the official period for the annual Santa Claus Rally includes the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the following year, for a total of 7 days.

Since 1950, the S&P500 has averaged a 1.3% gain during this period. And if you want to take it back further, since 1928 we've seen an average gain of 1.6%. This compares to just a 0.2% gain for any other random 7 day period throughout the rest of the year. 

Every year is slightly different, depending on which days Christmas and New Years fall on the Calendar. 

The last 5 days of 2024 begin this Tuesday December 24th. And the first 2 days of next year include January 2nd and 3rd. So the official 7 day period this year goes from December 24th - January 3rd

And while traditionally, this is a much more bullish time of the year, compared to other periods, the bigger concern is if Santa doesn't show up.