So if you're one of these sensitive types who is just too mentally weak to put your politics aside when making decisions about the market, then you're in the wrong place Karen.
For those of you who can be adults and actually focus on data and facts, here are some thoughts that might help you put the next couple of weeks in perspective.
At this point, I think it's pretty clear that the market has fully priced in a second trump presidency.
Here's a look at the betting markets showing the red line (trump) moving very aggressively to the upper right of the chart, while the blue line (harris) has been moving to the lower right of the chart.
You'll hear the conspiracy theories that a few guys behind the scenes are manipulating these markets because they are in favor of trump.
That's one way to look at it.
Peter Thiel, a well-known republican, is an investor in Polymarket.
So it's certainly possible that him and his buddies are moving markets and just throwing money away to help influence political outcomes.
Yes. That is possible...
But here's how I see it.
First, if they were manipulating these markets, and driving prices higher, when they should be going lower, then the company is done.
One and done for election betting odds leader?
That's just bad business.
So I'll take the under.
But, probably more importantly, the other betting markets are all showing the exact same results.
In other words, the betting markets that are NOT owned by the famous republican investor, have trump winning by a landslide as well.
Here's the Kalshi market:
And here's PredictIt.
Same thing.
Over the past month, Trump has shot straight up while Harris has completely fallen apart.
Just like in the other betting markets:
So what does this mean?
Why should this matter?
Well to me, part of it is about uncertainty, or a lack thereof.
That's what the markets are interested in.
You may like trump, or you may dislike him. But the market already saw what 4 years in office looks like.
So as erratic as the orange man might be at times, the market is already familiar.
It's the Harris that brings in a new level of uncertainty.
Also, when you look at stocks like Financials and the behavior of Crypto currencies, the strength in those areas points to a Trump victory.
It's the recent face ripper in China, however, that doesn't quite fit as nicely with a trump victory.
So is the China strength a heads up that Trump is about to lose?
Or is the historic strength out of Chinese stocks, despite a second Trump presidency, evidence of relative strength and new leadership from Chinese equities?
I think it's probably the latter.
Here's what the S&P500 of China looks like - consolidating its original momentum thrust in a sideways orderly manner.
Very impressive...
There's a lot happening in the market.
Later this week we enter the best 3 month period of the year.
This also means that we get a new batch of Monthly Candlesticks in a few days. So I will be hosting our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session one week from today - the night before the U.S. Presidential Election.
I would encourage you to also go back to our latest LIVE video Conference Call and review the details for each of our new trades.
We also discuss our overall strategy as we head into the final stretch of 2024.
Premium Members get 24/7 access to all our trade ideas, Premium Research and deep dives every day of the week, and private invitations to our LIVE Video Conference Calls, which I host twice a month.
