Our Most Important Call Right Now

November 21, 2023

Last night was our LIVE Mid-Month Strategy Session. It was probably one of the most important Live Conference Calls we've ever held.

It's odd because we're in the middle of a raging bull market, but it feels that almost no one is participating in it.

Just look around. Over the past 18 months people have told me how crazy I am for buying stocks. But you know, it's been really rewarding buying stocks.

It's the selling of stocks that has generally not worked out very well for investors.

But what do we do now, as we enter the early stages of the most bullish time of the year?

Premium Members make sure to catch the replay here and download all the slides from last night.

November through January is historically the most bullish 3-month period of the entire year. It also marks the beginning of the most bullish 6-month period of the year.

Take a look at the entire 4-year cycle. This is historically where stocks start to do well.

And wouldn't you know it, stocks are doing really well.

What continues to be surprising is just how pessimistic everyone is.

It's tough to quantify sentiment, because there are so many different readings, polls and indicators.

So we create a composite of a bunch of different indicators to approach sentiment from a weight-of-the-evidence perspective.

And as you can see, there is somehow more opportunity right now (too much pessimism) than there is risk (too much optimism):

And from an intermarket perspective, all signs continue to point towards a healthy market environment.

Look down here below.

Credit spreads are as tight as they've been all year. High Beta keeps making higher highs and higher lows vs Low Volatility, and Discretionary stocks continue to outpace Staples: