You're Crazy To Be Short

JC Parets
October 27, 2022

I understand the theories about Crypto Currencies being a scam.

"The whole thing is about to fall apart", they tell me.

And yea maybe.

That's entirely possible.

I don't really care that much either way. If it goes up, I hope to profit from it. And if all the coins go to zero, I'll make sure I'm not in them.

Other people losing money long crypto in that scenario is not my problem. I don't have the slightest interest or the time to care about other people's portfolios.

And I say that only to reiterate that I'm approaching this conversation with a very open mind.

Because we all know that the Bitcoin maxis and Ethereum folks can rarely have a civilized conversation, particularly with those who might disagree.

So to be clear, I do not care at all.

I'm much more interested in what's for dinner tomorrow than I am worried about whether Bitcoin is going to a million or zero.

Now with all of that out of the way, I think you have to be out of your mind to be short BTC or ETH if they are above their prior cycle's peak.

Here's what that looks like:

I can't think of a more important picture right now for crypto.

It doesn't exist.

What this chart represents to me is a very simple concept:

The entire crypto currency complex is not going to fall apart and collapse to zero if these 2 crypto currencies are above their prior cycle's highs.

I'm specifically referring to the late 2017 / early 2018 highs when BTC & ETH peaked and proceeded to have historic corrections.

After several years of a bottoming process, these two ultimately broke out again to new highs.

And now, here we are, back to the scene of the crime.

All those bad things you hear about are NOT going to happen if these two are above those former highs.

BTC and ETH together represent about 60% of all crypto assets.

They're a big deal.

So if you think this is all about to collapse and you're short crypto, my bet is that you're going to lose a lot of money unless these two are back below those former highs.

And right now they are not.

So like I said, I think you have to be crazy to be short.

Earlier today, I was invited on to have a fun debate about Technical Analysis in Crypto, hosted by CoinDesk and Sponsored by CME Group.

I think I made some good points and encourage you to give it a listen:

“Markets are not random,” @allstarcharts says.#TradingWeek, sponsored by @CMEGroup: https://t.co/5GDM7clwOG

Do you agree?

— Bogdan Duman (@BogdanDuman) October 26, 2022

Let me know what you think.

I'm pretty sure the other speakers had a tough time arguing against everything I had to say.

So I challenge you to come at me.

Where was I wrong?

Let's hear it!

Give me the best you got.

- JC

 

 

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