From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
The S&P 500 index is 20% off its early 2022 high, but remains nearly 14% above its pre-COVID peak. The median stock in the index, however, is now trading just below its pre-COVID high. The last several years have been an experience of tremendous volatility with no upside progress for the median stock. The numbers are even more startling among mid-caps and small-caps. Both the mid-cap S&P 400 and small-cap S&P 600 are nearly 10% above their pre-COVID peaks, but the median mid-cap stock is 10% below its pre-COVID high and the median small-cap stock is 20% below its pre-COVID high. This brings us to commodities. The median commodity is 30% below its high, but remains 20% above its pre-COVID peak. Whether it’s stocks or commodities (or bonds for that matter) there is plenty of volatility in the current environment. The volatility in commodities is in the context of an underlying up-trend. With the median stock in the S&P 500 returning to its pre-COVID high (and the Value Line Geometric Index where it was in 2018), it’s been an unrewarding roller coaster ride for stocks.
