From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
In Focus for July: We move into the third quarter, with many hoping for a respite from the environment that produced the worst first half of a year for balanced portfolios since the 1930’s. With 1% daily swings in the S&P 500 running at twice their historical rate (to the point that they have been the norm rather than the exception this year), leaning on price movements alone as evidence of improvement may be trickier than normal. The absence of an underlying breadth thrust regime has weighed heavily on equities. In the absence of such a signal, we want to see a combination of better breadth, liquidity and macro sentiment before thinking less about risk and more about opportunity. Until the environment improves our focus is a patient preservation of capital.
