My #1 thing right now

And in the chart at the bottom we have the US 10yr Yield running into its 2013 and 2018 highs. Again, on both of those occasions rates came down.

With interest rates ripping, particularly over the past year, Growth stocks have been crushed. Those "Long-duration" trades have been the most vulnerable, and carry a heavy weighting in the S&P500.

So if bonds stop crashing (i.e. rates take a pause), does that lift some of the pressure we're seeing in growth stocks, and therefore stocks and other risk assets in general?

I wonder how rates will react to these levels. Will it be like the prior 2 times? Or is this time different?

Let me know what you think! We love to hear from you.

In the meantime, here's the answer to that question from Friday.

If we're below 4100 in the S&P500, then 3800 is next and 3400 after that.

So unless we're back above 4100, it's tough to trust any rallies:

I like the S&P500 and other risk assets IF we're above those former lows.

If we're not then there's nothing to talk about.

Same thing in Small-caps. If we're not above those prior lows, then there's nothing to talk about from the long side:

You can really see it pronounced in the Small-cap Value Index.

If the strongest can't hold up, then what does that say about the rest of them?

If you're bullish stocks and other risk assets, I think it's important to understand that work that still needs to be done.

They're knocking down all the sectors. There's been no where to hide but the US Dollar, which is why it was the first thing I brought up today. When that ends, the selling pressure is likely near over.

That's what I'm seeing.

What about you? What's on your radar?

JC