The Bitcoin Dilemma

JC Parets
May 9, 2022

I was talking to some people this morning about how you can technically say that Bitcoin is still in a structural bull market.

It really depends on your time horizon.

Because when you zoom out, the past year has been really messy. It looks like a big giant consolidation.

This can either be massive distribution and a major top, or it can be a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.

Here's how I see it.

The Bull case starts with the 2020 breakout from that massive base:

A breakout to new all-time highs would complete that hypothetical consolidation.

Now if you're on the other side of this argument and believe this is a major top, then this is what that looks like:

And a break below last summer's lows would complete that top.

How low can we go?

20,000?

13,000?

Those are the next two levels to the downside that we'll be watching, in that scenario.

But for now, we're really stuck in the middle of a massive mess.

It's hard for me to have a lot of directional conviction from any kind of structural perspective, until one of these levels is breached and we either get a resumption in the uptrend, or the completion of a massive top.

Which one do you think it is?

Let us know!

We want to hear from you.

JC

 

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