Our weight of the evidence dashboard argues for caution, as risk outweighs opportunity. This is echoed by our Risk Off - Risk On indicators, which never showed a decisive move toward Risk On assets as stocks moved off their lows in March. Assessing the situation through the lens of various intra- and inter-market relationships, our range-o-meter shows a move toward Risk Off leadership over the past month. Risk Off assets are gaining strength, Risk On assets are stumbling. Where things go from here remains to be seen. None of us can predict the future. But we can identify whether we are in a higher risk or lower risk environment and adjust our portfolios accordingly. One of the best things I heard at last week’s CMT symposium came from Frank Teixeira: “The market gives you a lot of information if you are willing to listen for it.”
