From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Plenty of time is wasted and much virtual ink is spilled pulling apart and putting back together various pronouncements by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. With an FOMC meeting on tap, this coming week will likely be more of the same. Rather than focus on what central bankers are saying, it might be more productive to watch what they’re doing. The average central bank (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC) balance sheet has expanded by 10x over the past 20 years (that’s a 25% increase per annum). There is no realistic expectation that balance sheets will contract any time soon. But the pace of expansion is likely to slow (the Fed is expected to announce a timetable for a tapering of its balance sheet expansion this coming week), and interest rates around the world are on the rise. All of the net gains for global equities over the past 30-plus years have come when a majority of central banks have been in easing mode. Currently, just under 60% of central banks are still easing. But, as inflation remains persistent, we expect the number to fall and liquidity headwinds to rise.
