From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
- This week, we saw our macro universe lean positive as 62% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.51%.
- Lumber $LB was the big winner, closing out the week with a gain of more than 15% and registering a fresh 13-week high.
- The biggest loser this week was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a loss of -11.25%.
- This week, we saw no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs (currently at 47%).
- Only 30% of our list made new 4-week lows (down from 62% last week).
- Meanwhile, we saw 19% of our list make new 4-week highs.
- The average asset in our macro universe is still more than 5% below its 52-week highs.
- However, only 17% of our macro universe closed lower than their prior week's lows.
- The number of assets on our macro list in bullish momentum regimes is still at a year-to-date low, with a reading of 51% (no change from last week).
- We saw a bearish reversal from the 10-Year Note $TY this week as bonds continue to sell off and rates rally.
International Universe:
- International Equities enjoyed a slight pause in the recent downside pressure this week as 57% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.40%.
- 31% of our international universe closed higher than their previous week's highs.
- Indonesia $EIDO was the leader this week with a 6.83% gain.
- Chile $ECH was this week's big loser, dropping a massive -6.58%.
- The international universe's percentage of assets within 5% of their 52-week highs reading continued to fall this week (by another 2%) and is now at 26%, which is its lowest level all year.
- Meanwhile, the average ETF in our international universe is more than 7% below its respective 52-week highs (slight improvement from 8% last week).
- Momentum regimes are skating on thin ice from a structural perspective. Only 55% of the ETFs on our list are still bullish.
- Only 38% of the assets on this list posted new 4-week lows (down from 68% last week), and 22% finished the week at 4-week highs.
- We saw another fresh all-time high this week from Saudi Arabia.
- We saw bullish reversals from China $ASHR $FXI, BRICs $BKF, Peru $EPU, and Malaysia $EWM this week.
US Sector Universe:
- Our sector universe bounced back some this week as 66% of our list closed higher, with a median return of 0.70%.
- Equal Weight Energy $RYE was the big winner this week, closing with a 6.79% gain.
- The biggest loser of the week was Small-Cap Health Care $PSCH which dropped -2.56%.
- We saw 28% of our sector list post fresh 4-week lows even as another 30% closed at new 4-week highs. This illustrates that markets remain bifurcated over the near term.
- This week, we saw a 9% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs (from 40% up to 49%).
- Only 2% of our sector universe closed below last week's lows.
- The outlook remains stable from a structural perspective as 66% (6% improvement from last week) of our list is in a bullish momentum regime.
US Industry Universe:
- Our Industry universe performance was positive this week as 63% of our universe closed higher with a median return of 0.68%.
- The biggest winner was Unconventional Oil & Gas $FRAK, which gained 8.24%.
- The biggest loser of the week was Global Jets $JETS, which dropped -3.66%.
- 30% of industry groups made fresh 4-week lows. Meanwhile, 35% made fresh 4-week highs.
- The percentage of our list in bullish momentum regimes saw a negative change this week, with a current reading of 63%, down 4% from last week.
- 33% of the assets on our industry list are within 5% of 52-week highs (11% gain from last week).
- The average asset in our industry universe is 6.6% below its 52-week high.
That's it for this week's highlights!
