From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
- Macro Universe:
- There was pervasive weakness in our macro universe this week as 85% of our list closed lower with a median return of -2.17%.
- The VIX index was the big winner, closing out the week with more than a 30% gain and registering fresh 4-week highs in the process.
- The biggest loser again this week was Lumber, with another massive weekly loss of -15%
- Despite the weakness (and something we haven’t said since April), the Nasdaq 100 was able to make fresh all-time highs this week.
- We saw a 20% drop this week in the percentage of assets on our list that are within 5% of their 52-week highs (from 82% down to 62%).
- 57% of our list made new 4-week lows and 13% made fresh 13-week lows.
- 70% of our Macro Universe closed lower than last week’s lows.
- We also saw multiple bearish reversals this week from many risk-on assets.
- The amount of assets on our macro list in bearish momentum regimes rose to 32%.
- The median RSI reading for the list dropped to 43 this week.
- International ETF Universe:
- International Equities experienced further pressure this week as only two ETFs on our list closed in positive territory (Vietnam and Saudi Arabia) with a nasty median return of -2.80%.
- Saudi Arabia was the leader as KSA bucked the trend this week with a small 0.28% gain.
- Turkey $TUR was this week’s big loser dropping a massive -8.34%.
- We saw multiple bearish reversals this week in ECH, EDEN, EWY, PGAL, SPY & VEU.
- We felt some serious damage as the percent of assets on our international list within 5% of their 52-week highs was about slashed in half from last week. Currently, it's sitting at 47%.
- Momentum regimes remain constructive from a structural perspective, as 87% of the ETFs on our list are bullish.
- US Sector Universe
- The biggest loser of the week was Mid-Cap Materials which dropped -9%.
- Meanwhile, the biggest winner was Large-Cap Technology which eeked out a tiny gain.
- We saw 57% of our Sector list post fresh 4-week lows.
- US Sectors had a very tough week with 98% of our list closing in negative territory with a median return of -3.77%.
- We saw a massive change in terms of the indexes on our sector list that are within 5% of their 52-week highs as this figure fell to 40% and the median distance grew to 5.3%.
- Contrast this with last week's median of 0.9% and it's clear that selling pressure was not just strong for US stocks this week, but it was also broad as just about every sector got hit.
- New highs across the board have disappeared.
- The outlook still remains strong from a structural perspective as 85% of our list is in a bullish momentum regime.
