From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key takeaways:
- Both sales and earnings coming in better than expected
- Rising bond yields and higher inflation put pressure on valuations
- Excesses unlikely to be unwound while breadth remains strong & surprises are to the upside
Nearly three-quarters of the stocks in the S&P 500 have issued Q4 2020 earnings reports. The results have provided some cause for celebration. Earnings are now seen as rising 3%, versus an expected decline of 10% as of Dec. 31st. This is not strictly a function of shifting costs, write-offs and other methods of financial engineering. Sales in the quarter have surpassed expectations by more than 3%, the largest amount on record (going back to 2008). This eclipses the previous record which was set in Q3 2020. Companies in the S&P 500 have weathered the COVID-crisis much better than analysts had expected and that is being reflected in stock prices.
