This Is What Overwhelming Supply Looks Like

JC Parets
December 9, 2020

I don't want to keep talking about the same asset, you guys know we pride ourselves in looking for opportunities all over the world and across asset classes. But this Bitcoin scenario right now presents us with the perfect opportunity to explain what overwhelming amount of supply looks like. So bear with me, no pun intended (ok maybe a little).

Our upside objectives in Gold and Bitcoin were both hit recently. They were the former highs from 2011 and 2017, respectively. We discussed this in our Greater Fool discussion.

But WHY were those our targets? WHY were we, and still are, so focused on those former highs?

The reason is because it is a FACT, that last time Bitcoin was up here just under 20,000 there was more selling pressure than buying pressure. There was more supply than demand. This isn't like "JC's Opinion", or the opinion of my team. These are just facts. Bull or bear, bitcoin cult leader or not, you can't disagree there. Last time prices were up here, they fell. And they fell hard.

We call that overwhelming amount of supply relative to demand. Here's that epic crash that was sparked last time prices were here 3 years ago:

Click on Charts to Zoom in

This is why those former highs were our target. The thought process was, and has been, that the market has not proven yet that there is more demand than supply for Bitcoin at these prices. In fact, it's only proven the opposite.

So, what's happened since we returned to the scene of the crime in November?

This is a close-up of what an overwhelming amount of supply looks like. This is a 30-minute chart showing what "should" have been a continuation pattern that resolved higher (if this was still an uptrend), instead resolving lower.

Again, this is classic behavior for markets where there is an overwhelming amount of supply relative to demand.

My question has been, and still is, how long will it take for demand to absorb all of this supply?

A week? A month? A few quarters? Years? Never?

I have no idea.

So some investors like to sit around waiting in an investment not doing anything, or worse, going down.

I don't like that.

There are so many other better places to be out there. You see stocks making new highs, you don't need me to remind you.

What's wrong with waiting for Bitcoin to break out and prove that demand has absorbed all of this supply?

Why must we be hard-headed and sit around waiting....

You may be waiting a while. Maybe you won't. But you probably will.

When I buy the breakout, don't get mad at me for jumping on the bandwagon again. But also don't be mad at my patience in the meantime either.

Deal?

JC

 

 

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