Notable Breakdowns In The Rupee

Despite the US Dollar topping, USD/INR hasn't broken down...and instead, we're seeing breakouts in the other pairs we track.

Let's start with the Euro, which is emerging from a nearly 7-year base to new highs. We've been waiting patiently for a breakout and this week we're finally seeing it. As long as prices continue to hold above 86 on a weekly closing basis, then this breakout is intact and we can look for prices to move towards 101.50 over the coming quarters and years.

Click on chart to enlarge view. 

Next, we've got the Yen, which has been flagging tightly below its 2012 highs for the last 5 months. Our view has been that if prices stayed above 0.67, then we'd eventually see a breakout to new highs...and we may be getting that this week. If prices are above 0.71 on a weekly closing basis, then the bias is higher towards 0.838 over the coming quarters and years.

Last, but not least, is the British Pound. A breakout would confirm with a weekly close above 97 and target its former highs near 104. Ultimately we need to see a breakout above 104 to confirm a structural uptrend is beginning, but a seven-point move in the near-term is nothing to scoff at.

Those are the three pairs we want to focus on for the time being. The US Dollar/Rupee pair remains a hot mess with nothing to do until prices break decisively below 74 or above 78. Until that happens and prices begin to trend from an intermediate/long-term perspective, there's nothing to do.

It appears tough(er) times are ahead for the Rupee.

Despite the move in the US Dollar Index, we're not seeing much action relative to the Rupee. Instead, the best opportunities are the new uptrends forming in the Euro, Yen, and potentially British Pound.

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Thanks for reading and please let us know if you have any questions!

Allstarcharts Team